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发布时间: 2025-05-30 11:13:41北京青年报社官方账号
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  浙江白癜风医院在线解答   

BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April.     The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending.     Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent.     China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability.     But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption.     QUANTITY OR QUALITY?     In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery.     "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach.     "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy."     Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably."     Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic.     For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target.     The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable.     "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy.     "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April.     BUYING CURE     It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how?     "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years.     "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said.     Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said.     Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said.     Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s.     Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent.     "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk."     Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax.     As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities.     "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said.     CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE'     Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth.     Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries.     "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach.     "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global."     Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect.     Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure.     As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop.     It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach.     "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said.     "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.

  浙江白癜风医院在线解答   

BEIJING, July 4 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang Saturday urged efforts to better use geographic information so as to better serve the country's economic and social development.     Li made the remarks when attending an exhibition on maps and the achievements of China's geographic information application.     The exploration and application of geographic information and mapping since China launched its reform and opening-up policy in 1978 had played an important role in promoting the country's development, he said.     It has benefited sectors including urban and rural planning, land resources administration, environmental protection, quake-relief and national defense, according to Li.     He urged efforts to build a system of mapping and surveying in an information age and strengthen the capacity of mapping and surveying in providing service for the country's modernization drive.     The industry of geographic information should be expanded and meet multi-level and diversified market demands so as to better serve society and the people, he said.     Li also urged scientific researchers to embrace innovation in their work so as to produce more high-quality surveying and mapping instruments.

  浙江白癜风医院在线解答   

BEIJING, April 22 (Xinhua) -- China and Pakistan Wednesday praised the ties between their parliaments and both agreed to raise inter-parliamentary cooperation to a higher level.     In his meeting with visiting Speaker of Pakistan's National Assembly Fahmida Mirza, Chinese top legislator Wu Bangguo noted that China always conducted its ties with Pakistan taking a strategic, long-term perspective and was committed to pushing forward bilateral relations.     Wu, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), the top legislature, highlighted the growth of bilateral relations and expressed appreciation for Pakistan's support for China on issues relating to Taiwan and Tibet. Wu Bangguo (R), chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, China's top legislature, meets with Speaker of Pakistan's National Assembly Fahmida Mirza, in Beijing, capital of China, April 22, 2009    China will firmly back Pakistan's efforts for national stability and development, Wu added.     Wu said the NPC and Pakistan's National Assembly had forged friendly legislative ties.     "I hope to see the two parliaments continue to cement cooperation at various levels and through various channels in a bid to expand mutual understanding and friendship between the two peoples," Wu said.     Mirza said relations with China were always at the top of the agenda in Pakistan's foreign policies.     Pakistan hoped to expand cooperation with China in fields such as transportation, energy and free trade, Mirza said. She also urged both countries to develop exchanges among female members of their legislatures.     She also reiterated firm support for China's principle and position on issues relating to Taiwan and Tibet.     Mirza's visit to China from April 21 to 27, her first, was made at the invitation of Wu. She will also visit the western city of Xi'an and the economic powerhouse of Shanghai.

  

HOHHOT, June 9 (Xinhua) -- China held an anti-terrorism drill Tuesday afternoon to test its police forces' ability to handle a bomb containing radioactive contaminants.     The drill, held in northern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region's capital Hohhot, kicks off a series of drills in the autonomous region, Shanxi and Hebei provinces that surround Beijing. Members of the special police put on gas masks during an anti-terrorism drill in Hohhot, capital of north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, June 9, 2009. The exercise, codenamed "Great Wall-6", is aimed at improving the police forces' abilities to deal with possible terrorism attacks and other emergencies for the security of celebrations to be held in Beijing around Oct. 1 which marks the 60th founding anniversary of the People's Republic of China.     In the first drill, special policemen and armed policemen confronted "terrorists" in the city's square and the "terrorists" triggered the bombs which spread radioactive contaminants. Members of the special police check the site of a "dirty bomb" during an anti-terrorism drill in Hohhot, capital of north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, June 9, 2009.Through close cooperation with the city's health and environment authorities, the police forces successfully controlled the situation, according to the exercise's command headquarters.     The exercise will last through the middle of this month. Members of the special police rescue a "victim" during an anti-terrorism drill in Hohhot, capital of north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, June 9, 2009.

  

BEIJING, June 12 (Xinhua) -- China's joint prevention and control tactic has been proved to be powerful, orderly and effective in fighting the spreading of A/H1N1 virus, said Vice-Premier Li Keqiang while he presided over a conference on the issue Friday.     The tactic has helped the nation win time and initiative in the efforts to deal with the epidemic, which has protected the people's health rights, reduced its impacts on economy and society in a maximal way, and provided favorable conditions for the country's development, said the official, who is also member of the Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Political Bureau. Li conveyed the instructions of Hu Jintao, state president and general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, and Premier Wen Jiabao on the issue. He said the situation of the epidemic has been under control in the country. Chinese Vice-Premier Li Keqiang (C), who is also member of the Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Political Bureau, presides over a conference on China's joint prevention and control tactic of fighting the spreading of A/H1N1 virus, in Beijing, capital of China, June 12, 2009.    He called for seriously implementing the decisions and arrangement of the Party Central Committee and the State Council and adopting countermeasures that are compatible to China's realities.     "Persist on and improve preventive and controlling measures that have been proven effective and do a good job in the preventive and controlling work in a scientific, open and transparent way in accordance with law, so as to ensure people's health and normal production and life, and maintain social harmony and stability," he said.     The official praised the hard efforts and outstanding contribution made by Chinese quarantine officers and medical workers in the prevention and control of the epidemic. The patients found in China have mostly come from abroad and the majority of them are minor cases that have been cured in a relatively short time, he noted.     While the epidemic situation is developing outside of the country and the WHO has raised its flu alert to the highest level, the number of imported flu cases has increased relatively quickly over the past few days, according to the official.     China will try to minimize the number of locally transmitted cases, prevent the spreading of the virus in communities, increase the abilities of handling seriously ill patients, and speed up the pace of studying and producing the vaccine, in order to prepare for future changes of the epidemic, Li said.     Ma Kai, state councilor and secretary general of the State Council, attended the meeting.

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