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BEIJING, Aug. 8 -- China's consumer inflation may continue to decline in July, marking the second consecutive month this year that it has dropped, according to economists' estimates.    That may mean a departure from the rising spiral of inflation after it peaked at an annualized 8.7 percent in February. Lehman Brothers economist Sun Mingchun said his team's research found the July consumer price index (CPI), the main barometer of inflation, may drop to 6.7 percent year-on-year from 7.1 percent in June.     The domestic Bank of Communications research arm said the figure could fall at 6.4 percent, which is also the estimate of Southwest Securities. China's consumer inflation may continue to decline in July, marking the second consecutive month this year that it has dropped, according to economists' estimates.    One of the reasons why prices are stable is that there has been no flooding, a regular feature of the rainy seaon, said Sun of Lehman Brothers.     Daily price data from the Ministry of Agriculture and the National Development and Reform Commission show that agricultural product prices rose only slightly in July while meat prices fell. Weekly price data released by the Ministry of Commerce also showed a moderate decline in food prices.     The relatively high statistical base of last July also contributed to the drop in inflation this July, said Guo Tianyong, economist with the Central University of Finance and Economics.     China's CPI hit 5.6 percent year-on-year last July, the first time it reached the 5-percent level that year.     "If no major natural disaster hits China in August, CPI could fall below 6 percent in August, providing more room for the government to remove its price controls," said Sun.     Economists said that without many unexpected incidence, it will gradually ease to around 5 percent by the year-end.     A possible price liberalization of oil products, however, should not be a one-off adjustment, which will put a huge pressure on the country's battle against inflation, Guo said.     China raised the prices of oil products and electricity late June. Analysts said that once the inflation pressure eases, policymakers may start a second round of price liberalization, which may lead to a rebound in CPI.     If such liberalization moves are indeed made, they should be done in phases, not in one go, said Guo. Only that will ensure inflation does not peak again, as it did in February.     The pressure from the rising producer price index (PPI), which gauges ex-factory prices and influences CPI, may be a concern, but even taking into consideration its impact, consumer inflation may no longer exceed the February peak in the coming months and the first half of next year     "The worst times are behind us," said Dong Xianan, macroeconomic analyst with Southwest Securities.     "From the second half of last year, the tightenting stance had been obvious, which is a pre-emptive move to ensure the current easing of inflation."     Macroeconomic growth     The economic growth may gradually slow down in the rest of the year, analysts said, but the fine-tuning of policies would shore it up.     Dong from Southwest Securities forecasts that given the current growth momentum, the whole-year figure for GDP growth may be 10.1 percent, well below the 11.9 percent of last year. Other estimates are around the 10 percent mark.     The global economic slow-down, which reduces external demand for China's exports, will bring much trouble to China, but its domestic consumption and investment will remain stable, analysts said.     More importantly, the central authorities may adjust its tight policies to cater to individual demand of regions and sectors that have found it difficult to survive the tightened policies.

NEW DELHI, Sept. 9 (Xinhua) -- China-India relationship stands at a new starting point, the two should view and approach relations from a strategic and long-term perspective and keep moving forward their partnership to benefit the two countries and peoples, visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said here Tuesday.     He made the remarks in his speech titled "For Peace and Friendship, Win-Win Cooperation and Common Development" at a meeting held by the Indian Council of World Affairs and the Institute of Chinese Studies. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi delivers a speech titled "For Peace and Friendship, Win-Win Cooperation and Common Development" at a meeting held by the Indian Council of World Affairs and the Institute of Chinese Studies in New Delhi, India, Sept. 9, 2008Yang said China and India are the two biggest developing countries in the world. He quoted Chinese President Hu Jintao as saying that China-India friendship not only serves the interest of both countries but also benefits Asia and the world at large.     He said there is no conflict of fundamental interests between China and India. "What we have are broad common interests. We are partners, not rivals. There is a lot that we can do together to further our friendship and cooperation. We should view and approach our relations from a strategic and long-term perspective and keep moving forward our partnership in the new century to the benefit of our two countries and peoples."     To this end, he proposed that efforts are needed to be step up in the five areas between the two countries: increase exchanges and enhance strategic mutual trust, boost economic cooperation and trade for win-win progress, expand people-to-people and cultural exchanges, strengthen cooperation in multilateral for a to uphold common interests, address each other's concerns and properly handle differences.     "Today, our relations stand at a new starting point. Without friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation between China and India, there would be no development and prosperity of our respective countries, no harmony and rejuvenation of Asia, and no peace and progress of the world," he said.     Yang arrived in India last Sunday. He attended the inauguration ceremony of China's consulate-general in Kolkata, the capital of West Bengal, met and reached agreement with the West Bengal's Governor and Chief Minister on ways to deepen friendly and multi-faceted cooperation between China and West Bengal.     He called upon Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and held talks with Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee in Delhi Monday. The two sides had an in-depth exchange of views and reached broad agreement on ways to further implement the common understanding reached by leaders of both countries and deepen the China-India strategic and cooperative partnership as well as issues of mutual interest.

BEIJING, Oct. 6 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and his Australian counterpart Kevin Rudd, in a phone conversation on Monday, exchanged opinions on relations between their two countries as well as the international financial crisis and climate change.     Wen spoke positively of the development of the mutually beneficial cooperation between China and Australia.     He said China is willing to work with Australia to intensify coordination and cooperation, and meet the complicated global challenges in a bid to promote harmonious and sustainable development of the world.     The Australian prime minister lauded China's position and active role in handling the international financial crisis.     Rudd said the international community should strengthen cooperation to establish and improve the mechanism to guarantee the transparency and consistency of the international financial system.     Australia would like to work with China to reinforce exchanges and cooperation in international finance and in multilateral and bilateral fields, he added.

DUSHANBE, Aug. 26 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao arrived in Tajikistan's capital Dushanbe on Tuesday for a state visit and to attend the 8th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, scheduled for Thursday.     Hu flew to Dushanbe from Seoul after concluding a state visit to the Republic of Korea, and was met at the airport by Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon.     During his stay in Dushanbe, President Hu will hold talks with Rakhmon and sign bilateral cooperation deals related to political, economic and trade exchanges, according to a senior official of the Chinese Foreign Ministry.     In a written speech delivered at the airport, Hu said China and Tajikistan are friendly neighbors sharing common mountains and rivers.     Since the two countries forged diplomatic ties 16 years ago, bilateral relations have witnessed smooth development with tangible results achieved in political, economic, security and other areas, he said. Chinese President Hu Jintao (R Front) shakes hands with South Korean Prime Minister Han Seung Soo during their meeting in Seoul, capital of South Korea, Aug. 26, 2008    The two countries have resolved lingering border disputes and signed a treaty of friendship and cooperation featuring good-neighborly relations last year, Hu noted.     China and Tajikistan have also supported each other on major and sensitive issues of mutual concern, and cooperated closely under multilateral frameworks including the SCO and the United Nations, he added.     During his visit to Tajikistan, President Hu will sum up the current position of bilateral ties and blueprint key areas for future cooperation. Chinese President Hu Jintao (L Front) waves to people as Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon (R Front) greets him at the airport in Tajikistan's capital Dushanbe Aug. 26, 2008. Chinese President Hu Jintao arrived in Dushanbe on Aug. 26 for a state visit and to attend the 8th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, scheduled for Aug. 28. "With concerted efforts made by both, the visit will be a complete success and Sino-Tajik good-neighborly, friendly and cooperative ties will be uplifted to a new level," he said.     Bilateral ties have maintained good momentum in recent years, with the two countries working more closely on trade, transportation, telecommunication, infrastructure, education, culture and sports.     China and Tajikistan have also engaged in fruitful cooperation in cracking down on East Turkistan separatists and the "three evil forces" of terrorism, separatism and extremism, as well as in fighting drug trafficking.     President Hu will also attend the annual SCO summit in Dushanbeon Thursday.     Founded in 2001, the SCO groups China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.     Tajikistan is the second leg of Hu's three-nation tour, which will next take him to Turkmenistan.

BEIJING, Sept. 11 -- Inflation eased to its lowest level in August since June last year, giving the government more policy leeway to prevent an economic slowdown.     The consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, rose 4.9 percent year-on-year, compared to 6.3 percent in July, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said yesterday.     The CPI has been sliding since May, but still many economists were caught by surprise by last month's drop because they had forecast it to be above 5 percent. The month-on-month fall was only 0.1 percent.     But last month's producer price index (PPI), a gauge of factory gate inflation, rose a record 10.1 percent year-on-year, after jumping 10 percent in July.     Nevertheless, the low CPI figure gives the government "more policy room to sustain growth," Citigroup economist Ken Peng said.     He suggested the authorities consider further policy changes favoring growth, which could shift to full gear next month.     Economic growth has been slowing since the second quarter of last year, when the government adopted monetary and credit measures to rein in inflation and prevent the economy from overheating further.     Yet economists began warning of a recession since the beginning of this year, especially because the country's export sector, a key growth engine, started losing steam on weaker foreign demand.     The government responded it would strive to maintain a stable economic growth this year, leading to speculation that it would soon ease the tightening measures. But any step to stimulate the economy, such as lower interest rates or faster loan growth, risks spurring demand and stoking inflation again.     "Unless there's an abrupt slowdown, there's no need for a major change in the marco-control measures," said Lian Ping, an economist with the Bank of Communications. "The current 10 percent GDP growth is largely seen as acceptable."     The CPI rise is likely to stabilize around 5 percent during the rest of the year, he said, because food prices may continue to drop. Inflation fell last month mainly because of a drop in food prices, which make up one-third of the inflation basket. Food prices slid 0.4 percent from July.     A falling inflation rate gives the government a good chance to lift its price control on products such as fuel, water, and electricity further, Lehman Brothers economist Sun Mingchun said.     In the past year, policymakers have managed to freeze the prices of public utilities, and fuel and power tariff. They introduced temporary price curbs on some other goods, too, to rein in inflation.     Yet soaring labor and raw material costs, reflected in the rising PPI figure, have eaten into the profit of local enterprises because price control and fierce competition prevented them from passing the inflationary pressure on to consumers.     Such price liberalization could make the CPI rise again in the next few months, Sun said.     "But if implemented in a gradual and orderly way, inflation should remain below 6 percent year-on-year during the rest of the year."

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