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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The first new hospital tower in 40 years in the South Bay could have a major impact addressing a shortage of beds in the region, officials say. Sharp Health Care is set to open its 106 bed Ocean View Tower this week in central Chula Vista. It is adjacent to the 243 bed Sharp Chula Vista original tower, which has seen an overflow due to a growing South Bay with too much demand for health care. "There's about 4,000 new homes in this area that have been built, so more and more we are going to have to provide health care for that population," said Pablo Velez, the hospital's chief executive. While the South Bay has experienced rapid growth, most of the new hospitals have been constructed in North San Diego, where there are higher paying patients, Velez said. At an open house Saturday, more than one thousand South Bay residents got a first look inside the hospital. Each room will be private, with big screen high definition televisions, large bathrooms, USB ports in beds, and local art. The hospital boasts a top floor cafeteria and large family waiting rooms. "I always go to Sharp, and my dad already knows the doctors here and the nurses because he's been in and out a lot of times since early last year," said Cesar Gonzales, an Eastlake resident who came to the open house with his 92-year-old father, a Sharp Chula Vista patient. The hospital cost 4 million to build. Construction began in November 2016. 1452

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The California Restaurant Association has a grim forecast for the restaurant industry as communities across the state begin to see more and more restaurant closures.When the coronavirus pandemic started, the CRA projected that 20 to 30 percent of restaurants could close their doors for good because of the pandemic. That projection is looking to be on the higher end now, according to Jot Condie, the CRA's president and CEO."With this second shutdown, it's likely to be closer to 30 percent," Condie said. "A lot of restaurants that we're learning are closed, are doing it quietly. There are no signs posted, no banners saying we're closed for good."He said while many variables are at play, even when restaurants can reopen completely, many restaurant owners will not be out of the woods yet."After the opening, you'll see a sort of shaking out of the industry in those first 18 months," Condie said.Condie said the restaurants most at risk are fine dining and independently owned.He also said the impact will likely vary in various parts of the state. Condie believes that San Diego County and Southern California's restaurant industry may fare better than the rest of the state because of better weather throughout the year. The weather will be a significant factor for restaurants that can offer outdoor dining and expanded outdoor dining."Where the weather cooperates almost all year, you're likely not to see the challenges of survival that you will see in, for example, San Francisco or the Bay Area," he said. 1546

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The County of San Diego released a 200-page report on Thursday that examines its handling of the recent Hepatitis A outbreak that infected almost 600 people and caused 20 deaths.The report details the county’s successes and what recommendations it has for the future. County officials have been criticized by some people who believe there was not enough action taken at the time.“The county seems to be more interested in its [own image] rather than solving problems,” prominent homeless advocate Michael McConnell told 10News by phone Thursday. He said that from what he knows, there’s little new information in the audit.RELATED: Health officials reminding San Diegans about hepatitis A shotMcConnell added it appears there’s little insight into what could’ve been done before the health concern became a full-blown epidemic.“It certainly appears there were many flaws in the reaction,” McConnell said.McConnell wrote a letter Thursday to state Assemblymember Todd Gloria, outlining a “disturbing timeline,” claiming county officials knew about the outbreak last March but didn't meet until May 4, "despite three deaths and 80 documented cases.”RELATED: Hepatitis A emergency officially ends in San Diego County A state of emergency was declared in September and it was lifted in January.Gloria recently asked for a state audit on the outbreak.In the county’s defense, the report says it acted at the start of the outbreak by providing vaccinations, promoting sanitation and educating community medical providers.RELATED: Audit questioning San Diego's response to hepatitis A outbreak requestedThe report does, however, acknowledge the needs for better coordination among leadership, more training and improving the county’s immunization registry system, among other recommendations.McConnell says, “I think for the most part [the county’s saying], ‘We did a great job. Here are [sic] some minor things we can change. Let this go away.'"Assemblymember Gloria's request for an audit will be heard next week by the Joint Legislative Audit Committee.The full report can be found here. 2135

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The county's average price for a gallon of gas eclipsed for the first time since May 22, according to AAA.The average price of regular gas in San Diego spike 9 cents Saturday and has risen 10 of the last 12 days for a total of 35.8 cents, according to AAA.Since last month, the average price is up more than 40 cents.MAP: Click here to find the cheapest gas in your areaIn California, however, the statewide average sits at .95 a gallon. The national average rests substantially lower, at .65 a gallon.The rise in gasoline prices has been attributed to several issues at refineries in California and just weeks after attacks on Saudi Arabia oil fields. Refinery issues include unplanned work at PBF refinery in Torrance, an outage at Chevron’s Segundo refinery, a flaring event at Valero Benicia and Marathon’s LA refinery, according to GasBuddy senior petroleum analyst Patrick DeHaan.City News Service contributed to this report. 965