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A key forecasting model that’s been cited by the White House and state officials now predicts the COVID-19 death toll in the United States will surpass 410,000 by January 1.The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington released its latest forecast Friday, saying the U.S. and other countries in the Northern Hemisphere should prepare for a seasonal rise in COVID-19 cases.COVID-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to an ongoing tally from Johns Hopkins University.“I would call the surge in the winter that we’re forecasting a second wave,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray in a call with reporters Friday.The IHME says COVID-19 has followed seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia and if that correlation continues to hold, northern countries can anticipate more cases in the late fall and winter months.“The worst is yet to come,” warned Murray. “I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern Hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away.”The IHME’s prediction of 410,000 U.S. deaths by Jan. 1 is its most likely scenario, but it also provided a worst-case scenario. If mask usage stays the same and states continue to relax social distancing requirements, the IHME model predicts over 620,000 Americans could die from the virus by the new year.The IHME’s best-case scenario, where mask usage is universal and governments impose social distancing requirements, shows more than 286,000 people dying across the nation by the end of the year.“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” said Murray in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”Globally, the IHME predicts that nearly 770,000 lives could be saved between now and Jan. 1 through proven measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing.Across the world, deaths expected by Jan. 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year, the IHME says. Daily deaths in December could reach as high as 30,000.Under the most likely of IHME’s scenarios, the nations with the highest per capita total deaths would be the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Netherlands, and Spain.The IHME says these five countries will most likely have the highest cumulative death tolls by Jan. 1:India: 659,537U.S.: 410,451Brazil: 174,297Mexico: 138,828Japan: 120,514IHME says its projections are based on an epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as location-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19. 2977

A Florida woman is desperate to resolve a smelly situation. No one will remove the 9-foot dead gator out of her Loxahatchee backyardThis story has all the ingredients for "Only in Florida."  A homeowner in Loxahatchee said she found a dead gator on her property on Friday, and the smell is overwhelming. Her husband first noticed it while mowing the lawn days ago, and she is still at a loss with what to do next. Stacey Rutherford can barely uncover her mouth long enough to describe the stench of a dead alligator in the canal on her property. "It’s gross. It’s gross I just want it gone," she said. "You can't make it up!"Rutherford called the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission for help and she said they told her to "climb in there and poke it with a stick!"The recommendation to sink it actually stunned her."Ummmmm I told them that I would not be poking it," she said. FWC said every circumstance is different, but officers don't come to pick up decomposing carcasses. Adding that the alligator nuisance hotline will give suggestions on how to let the gas out of the gator, but ultimately, it's the homeowner's responsibility to do that. The other option...simply wait it out. Rutherford said she asked FWC if she could shoot it instead of going in the water. "If she were to shoot it, that's like poking a hole into the belly, which may help release the gases and let it sink,  but she would have to consult with law enforcement to make sure she is not breaking any laws getting into trouble," said wildlife expert David Hitzig Neighbors said the stench is unbearable. "You forget and then you get that big strong whiff," said Raymond Velloza, who lives across the street from where the gator is.  Rutherford says bottom line she can't take the smell any more. "I’m begging for somebody to help. I mean, I’ve called everybody," she said. "Nature should take it’s course in somebody else’s backyard, not mine."Options are limited in this type of situation. You can call the alligator nuisance hotline for advice, hire a private, licensed company to remove it or unfortunately wait until the stench subsides. 2197

A Land O' Lakes, Florida man who was just released from prison was arrested for attempted vehicle theft again before he even left the jail parking lot.Klaid Karpuzi, 41, was arrested when deputies say he tried to steal a truck with a teen in the backseat just three days earlier.As Karpuzi was walking through the jail parking lot following his release, he reportedly tried to get into a vehicle by walking around it, then pulling on the passenger door handle.Inside the vehicle was an off-duty deputy who happened to be at the jail to take a class.When Karpuzi pulled on the handle, Deputy Brunner stepped out of the vehicle, where she and another deputy detained him.Karpuzi told the deputies he saw a vehicle with the engine running and did not realize anyone was in it.He was arrested for attempted auto theft and returned to the jail. Karpuzi has already been released again.  914

A grocery store employee is being lauded for helping a teen with autism stock shelves in a fridge.Sid Edwards and his son Jack Ryan Edwards, 17, visited their local Rouses Market in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on Sunday. Jack Ryan, who is on the autism spectrum, took notice of what one of the employees was working on: stocking shelves in a fridge.Edwards said Jack Ryan was mesmerized by what the store employee was doing. At first, Edwards thought his son wanted orange juice. 483

A Bulgarian man has been detained in Germany over the killing of journalist Viktoria Marinova, Bulgarian Interior Minister Mladen Marinov said Wednesday.Authorities cannot yet say whether or not Marinova's murder in the northern Bulgarian city of Ruse was linked to her work as a broadcast journalist, according to Bulgarian Chief Prosecutor Sotir Tsatsarov.The man has been charged in his absence with rape and murder, Tsatsarov said.A European arrest warrant was issued for the Bulgarian man after his DNA matched evidence collected from the crime scene, Marinov told a news conference.A spokeswoman for the Interior Ministry told CNN the 21-year-old suspect had been arrested close to the northern German city of Hamburg.Bulgarian authorities are requesting his extradition, she said. They are awaiting a DNA analysis to confirm his alleged involvement, she added. 875