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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — After the polls close on Election Night, ABC News and the other major networks will start projecting winners and “calling” races, in some cases well before the official vote counts are finalized.They’ll do it by relying on data from a New Jersey-based company called Edison Research.Edison provides exit polls, survey data, and vote counts for ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN. The company has provided data for this group of networks, known as the National Election Pool, since 2004.“We know what we're doing is really, really important,” said the company’s president Larry Rosin.In certain races, networks will project a winner shortly after the polls close, sometimes before state election officials report any official vote totals. Such a projection is nicknamed an “insta-call” in the news business.Networks only make insta-calls in races where Edison’s exit polls and telephone surveys in the days leading up to the election show a decisive winner, Rosin said.ABC News only issues a projection when statistical models overseen by a team of mathematicians and elections experts show a winner with 99.5 percent confidence.Each network has its own team of experts that crunch Edison’s numbers. Fox News makes projections based on data provided by the Associated Press.When a race is close, the network decision teams turn to more complicated math.“It’s a matter of looking at that historical vote all the way down to the precinct or county level and comparing how the vote is coming in, in that state up to that point,” said Rosin.On Election Night, Edison has thousands of employees fanned out in virtually every county across the nation, monitoring the vote count as it comes in and manually reporting the totals when necessary. There are other employees whose job is to check the numbers for accuracy.Edison’s data helps networks understand how preliminary vote totals compare to the way regions voted in the past, which is an important metric in an election forecast.“If every precinct was just a little bit more Republican than it had been four years ago, you have a good sense that all the other precincts that are similar will likely be a little more Republican, and the Republican will do a little better than four years ago,” Rosin said as an example.Using those kinds of trends, the networks then forecast how many ballots are still left to be counted, and what kind of ballots those are -- either in-person early votes, in-person votes on Election Day, or mail-in votes.At that point it comes down to a formula, comparing the known reported votes to the outstanding votes a candidate is likely to gain.“It’s a very high pressure project, but I’m proud to say that no network has made an incorrect call since the 2004 cycle,” which was Edison’s first year providing election data to the networks, Rosin said.The company started doing this after the debacle in 2000, when networks incorrectly called the race in Florida between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Rosin said a lot of things have changed since then.“The pressure to make calls correctly really superseded the pressure to call quickly,” he said.This year could be a challenging one to forecast, Rosin said, with so many more mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. Mail-in ballots take longer to process because election workers have to compare the signature on the mail-in ballot against the signature a voter has on file.For that reason, Rosin said it may take a while for the networks to call races in certain key battleground states that start their counting process late, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 3594

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Across San Diego County, cities will soon raise and illuminate that all-important sign of Christmas.Tree lighting ceremonies kick off this month, with several planned for residents no matter where in the county they live. Many of this year's tree lighting events will celebrate with holiday treats, shopping, rides and games, and, of course, appearances by Santa.Check out where you can catch a tree lighting ceremony in San Diego this season:Otay Ranch Town Center Tree Lighting (Nov. 19): The South Bay will usher in the holidays at Otay Ranch Town Center, where their Christmas tree will light up at 7 p.m. Festivities, crafts, and delicious treats will be available starting at 5 p.m. and Santa will pay everyone a visit at the shops.Santee Holiday Tree Lighting (Nov. 22): Santee starts the holiday season with crafts and games, carriage rides, photos with Santa, sledding, and more at Santee Trolley Square. Then at 6:30 p.m., the crowd will gather as the square's tree comes to life.Liberty Station Tree Lighting (Nov. 29): The holiday fun gets started at 5 p.m. in Liberty Station before the district's 88-foot tree is switched on by a patient family of Rady Children's Hospital. Visitors can enjoy live entertainment, shopping, and outdoor viewing of "How the Grinch Stole Christmas."Lighting of The Forum in Carlsbad (Nov. 30): The Forum Carlsbad celebrates its 17th annual Lighting of The Forum from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. with a live holiday musical, grand arrival for Santa, light show, and snowfall around the ceremonial tree lighting.Christmas on the Prado &Tree Lighting (Nov. 30): Christmas on the Prado brings tons of Christmas fun to Balboa Park from 1 p.m. to 8 p.m. at the Organ Pavilion and International Cottages, including holiday kids crafts, photos with Santa, music, delicious seasonal treats, and a tree lighting ceremony.Oceanside Tree Lighting (Dec. 5): Celebrate the holidays in Oceanside, where their holiday tree will light up at 6 p.m. with the help of a "special guest." Live music, games and rides, and treats will be available starting at 5 p.m.Fallbrook Tree Lighting (Dec. 6): Fallbrook will gather from 5 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. to celebrate the holidays with their tree lighting, live music, face painting, games, balloons, food, and more for families.San Marcos Tree Lighting & Santa's Village (Dec. 7): San Marcos flips the switch on their tree at 5:35 p.m., after photos with Santa from 1 p.m. to 4:30 p.m. Guests get to enjoy free crafts and activities, live entertainment, and "snow" after the tree lighting.Encinitas Holiday Parade & Tree Lighting (Dec. 7): Ahead of Encinitas' holiday parade, Santa will kick off the holidays with a tree lighting ceremony at 5 p.m. Then, thousands of people will enjoy the sights and sounds as the season gets underway during the parade, beginning at 5:30 p.m.Little Italy Tree Lighting & Christmas Village (Dec. 7): Little Italy's tree lighting will set the Piazza della Famiglia aglow with live music, carriage rides, holiday snacks, and a visit from Santa. The tree lighting countdown hits at 6:30 p.m., but families can enjoy the holiday festivities starting at 4 p.m.Pacific Beach Tree Lighting (Dec. 7): Pacific Beach's holiday season starts at 2 p.m., with pictures with Santa on Crystal Pier and a tree lighting ceremony at sunset.Lakeside Spirit of Christmas Tree Lighting (Dec. 7): Enjoy local school performances, photos with Santa, activities and games for kids, and a community tree lighting on Main Avenue at Lakeside's Spirit of Christmas event from 3:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.Ramona Christmas Tree Lighting (Dec. 7): Thousands are expected to celebrate the holidays on Ramona's Main Street, as shops stay open late, sleigh rides ferry locals around town, and Santa arrives to help light Ramona's tree at 6 p.m. But the fun starts at 5 p.m., with a classic car show, live music and carolers, and food.Vista Village Winterfest & Tree Lighting (Dec. 8): Vista is hosting a "Winterfest" with live entertainment, holiday movies, a roaming Mariachi, and holiday contests during their tree lighting ceremony. Santa will be in attendance, and there will be plenty of crafts for kids starting at 2 p.m.Del Mar Tree Lighting & Santa by the Sea (Dec. 8): Del Mar's annual tree lighting starts at 5 p.m. Families can enjoy Santa by the Sea festivities beginning at 3 p.m., including holiday treats, Santa hat crafts, photo opportunities, and live music.Solana Beach Tree Lighting (Dec. 8): Solana Beach will light up their holiday tree at Fletcher Cove Park starting at 4:30 p.m. Families can enjoy live music, holiday eats and sips, and Santa arrives at 5:20 p.m. to meet with children.Poway Tree Lighting & Festival (Dec. 14): Poway's tree lighting ceremony starts at 5:15 p.m., following by Santa's arrival at 5:30 p.m. at Old Poway Park. Families can enjoy horse-drawn hay and pony rides, a petting zoo, face painting, train rides, holiday treats and live entertainment. 4970

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - After 20 months of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detainment, a Congolese father fighting for political asylum has reunited with his family. The newly paroled father went to a church service in San Diego with his family for the first time since 2017."Constantin has been reunited with his family," Pastor Colin Mathewson of St. Luke's Episcopal Church said. Sunday was Constantin Bakala's first time at church with his family since his parole. In 2017, the former computer engineer took his family and escaped from the Republic of Congo after he said they received multiple death threats by the new government. They somehow made it to San Ysidro to seek political asylum. But there, the family was separated and Bakala was held alone at four different ICE detention facilities on the East Coast. Meanwhile, while his wife Annie and seven children were released in San Diego. Through a French translator, Bakala spoke to 10News."Because of the distance between my detention and family, communication was very difficult," Bakala said. The family's only form of communication was the phone. For months, the Bakalas and their friends fought for reunification. 10News was there as they rallied at an ICE office in downtown San Diego and at church events. Earlier this year, Bakala's first parole request was denied. Five lawyers, 30 volunteers, and 20 months later, Bakala was granted parole. On Aug. 19, 2019, Bakala arrived at San Diego International Airport with a single duffel bag."[It was] pure joy when I hugged and kissed them," Bakala said. His eldest daughter, Marie Louise, could not contain her joy."I am really grateful to God and to all those people who are helping me and my family to be together," Marie Louise Bakala said. She previously told 10News that all she wanted was for her father to be there when she celebrated her 18th birthday. Her wish came true."I'm just really happy because my birthday will be next month, and my dad is here!"The Bakalas' journey, however, is not over. As Bakala adjusts to his new life as a parolee, the family awaits their trial. But now, they have each other.Constantin, Annie, Marie Louise, Emmanuel, Daniel, David, Augustine, Moises, and Joseph are together at last.In his broken English, Bakala told 10News: "I thank everybody who are before me to understand the condition from where I am coming."Constantin Bakala's case has been moved to California. The family is waiting for their new trial date. 2489

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - A Valencia Park dog owner is looking for the person that took his dog from his front yard Tuesday morning. Jayden Ryan’s five-month-old french bulldog, Greyson, was last seen playing in their driveway. His security camera shows Greyson walking over to the fence, but then the camera jumps to footage of a man wearing a hood walking away, and he appeared to be carrying the dog in his arms. Ryan says there were about three to four minutes of missing footage, that might have shown the man’s face, as well as how he ended up with his dog. He says the camera company told him there was an issue on the way the video uploaded. However, a neighbor saw the incident. He told Ryan, as well as 10News, that he saw the hooded man reach over the fence, pet the dog for about a minute, then grab him and walk away. The security footage picked up audio of the neighbor yelling at the hooded stranger and then chasing after him. “(My neighbor) says he tried to run after him, but he is 54 years old. He was no match for him, so he ended up getting away,” Ryan said. Neighbors said they recently saw the man in the neighborhood. Ryan says French bulldogs are expensive so they can be enticing to thieves. He would be surprised if he were casing the neighborhood. Ryan is putting up fliers, hoping someone will have information about Greyson, or the man in the video. “They didn’t just steal my dog, they stole the happiness from me,” Ryan said. San Diego Police say no suspects have been identified at this time and no arrests have been made. 1561

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - A second Scripps Medical Response Team has deployed to Northern California, tasked with helping fire victims.The first team returned Friday after a nine-day mission.“Being there in these shelters with people that have lost totally everything, but they're thankful for their lives, it just sets a whole new meaning for us for Thanksgiving," said Steve Miller, a Registered Nurse and part of the response team.Miller says because fire victims were forced to evacuate so quickly many did not have their medications or ID's to pick up prescriptions. He says the smoke also made respiratory problems worse. The days are long for the medical team, 12 hours at the shelter providing medical care along with prep and a daily debrief. “You’re in austere conditions; you’re living in tents, it’s cold, it’s wet, you do not have electricity, so you have to be able to work in that environment. You don't have all the medical tools you have in the hospital.”The second four-person team will continue to help fire evacuees over the next week. 1056

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