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BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April.     The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending.     Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent.     China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability.     But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption.     QUANTITY OR QUALITY?     In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery.     "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach.     "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy."     Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably."     Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic.     For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target.     The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable.     "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy.     "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April.     BUYING CURE     It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how?     "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years.     "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said.     Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said.     Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said.     Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s.     Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent.     "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk."     Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax.     As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities.     "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said.     CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE'     Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth.     Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries.     "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach.     "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global."     Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect.     Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure.     As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop.     It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach.     "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said.     "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.

BEIJING, June 21 -- Chinese stocks rose to a weekly high on Friday after the securities regulator lifted a nine-month ban on initial public offerings (IPOs), indicating investors' strengthened confidence in the market based on ample liquidity and clearer signs of economic recovery.     The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China's bourses, rose 26.59, or 0.9 percent, to 2,880.49 at close, its highest close since July 28, 2008.     The CSI 300 Index, measuring exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, gained 0.7 percent to 3,080. Investors are set to return to the bourses in a big way with the return of initial public offerings and robust economic indicators. The market barometer has also shown significant gains in the past few days. Shi Yan    "We expected the new IPOs to be the biggest bad news for the capital market this year," said James Yuan, chief investment officer of Everbright Pramerica Fund Management Co Ltd. "But now it is not as daunting, thanks to the improved economy, more liquidity and new listing rules."     Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical Co, a medium-sized drug firm, on Thursday night received regulatory approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to seek a stock exchange listing, marking the resumption of IPOs since September last year.     The company said it plans to float 46 million A shares on the Shenzhen bourse on June 29 and will start a road show for the same on June 22.     "The restarting of IPOs of smaller firms rather than the big caps indicates that the government aims to stabilize the market," said Dong Chen, senior analyst, CITIC China Securities. "If the market does not panic after the new round of IPOs, the regulator will grant more approvals next week, but probably for small caps."     Earlier reports said China State Construction Engineering Corp (CSCEC), the country's biggest home-builder, would probably be among the first batch of companies to issue 12 billion shares to the public and raise about 40 billion yuan.     Based on the number of new shares to be issued and the average price-earning ratio on the secondary market, analysts said the 32 companies now waiting could raise as much as 70 billion yuan through their IPOs.     "The loose monetary policy, coupled with the huge advance of the Shanghai Composite Index, has bolstered confidence that the stock market can withstand the added supply of stock," said Dong.     "Meanwhile, the anticipation of gains on their investments may propel more investors to test the market waters, when the bullish trend becomes clear," he said.     China's major market barometer has surged nearly 58 percent this year, thanks to the government's timely launch of the 4-trillion-yuan economic stimulus package and loose monetary policy.     The resumption of IPOs is also expected to give a strong boost to brokerages whose earnings are expected to improve on the investment banking revenues.     CITIC Securities gained 2.8 percent to 29.54 yuan, the highest in a year, while Sinolink jumped 10 percent to 21.46 yuan.     Shares of medical companies also outperformed on news of drugmaker Guilin Sanjin's listing and the spread of the H1N1 flu virus.     Beijing Tiantan Biological Products, a biological bacterin producer, jumped to its 10 percent daily limit for the second day in a row to 26.26 yuan after it said on Thursday that it had started to research bacterin for fighting the H1N1 flu virus.

BEIJING, June 2 (Xinhua) -- China and the United States are ratcheting up efforts to prepare for strategic and economic talks this summer as U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner continues his visit to Beijing.     "China-U.S. relations show a good momentum of development as both sides have kept close contacts since the new U.S. administration took office," President Hu Jintao told Geithner at the start of their meeting Tuesday afternoon. Chinese President Hu Jintao (R FRONT) meets with visiting U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (L FRONT) in Beijing, capital of China, June 2, 2009Hu reviewed his first meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama in London in April when both agreed on building a "positive, cooperative and comprehensive relationship for the 21st century" and launching China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue.     "As both sides agreed to hold the first round of dialogue in Washington D.C. in July, I hope both will work closely, step up preparation so as to make the dialogue a success," Hu said in a statement issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.     Hu characterized the dialogue mechanism as "an important platform for both nations to deepen understanding, mutual trust and cooperation."     The strategic track of the dialogue will be chaired by Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while the economic track will be chaired by Vice Premier Wang Qishan and Geithner.     "As influential nations in the world, China and the United States share extensive common interests and shoulder important responsibilities in tackling global economic challenges and resolving the world hot-button issues," Hu said.     He said China would like to work with the United States to strengthen dialogues at all levels, expand exchanges and cooperation for fresh progress in bilateral relations in the new era.     Geithner, on first visit to China as Treasury chief, said his visit was "a good start" of building bilateral ties and "looked forward to holding the dialogue in Washington D.C."     He hailed bilateral "capacity to work together in global stage" and said he saw "early signs of stabilization of the economies."     Earlier afternoon, Premier Wen Jiabao also met with Geithner in Zhongnanhai, the central leadership's compound near the Forbidden City in Beijing. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (R) meets with visiting U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in Beijing, capital of China, June 2, 2009"The foremost task for both countries is to work more closely to address the global economic downturn, oppose protectionism in trade and investment, promote reform in international financial system, tighten oversight of international reserve currency so as to ensure the stability and growth of China, the United States andthe world," Wen said.     During his three-day visit, Geithner had a flurry of meetings with China's top economic team, including Vice Premier Wang Qishanand chiefs of commerce, finance, banking and securities, among others. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (1st R) meets with visiting U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (1st L) in Beijing, capital of China, June 2, 2009In an hour-long meeting with Geithner Monday, Wang said, "The major task of our economic dialogue is to address the global economic slowdown.     "We will send a message that China and the United States are cooperating substantively to get over the difficult times, which will help boost confidence, promote global financial stability and economic recovery," Wang said.     Geithner told Wang, "The world is going through an exceptionally challenging period now and I think the world has a huge stake in our two countries working closely together to lay a foundation for recovery."     On Monday in a speech to students at China's Peking University, Geithner said that China's investments in the United States "are very safe. ... We have the deepest, most liquid financial markets in the world."     Geithner also struck a positive note on the global economy, citing the initial signs of improvement. Visiting U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (2nd R) meets with representatives of eight U.S. clean energy companies with branches in China, at Beijing's Capital Museum, June 2, 2009Earlier Tuesday, Geithner visited Beijing's Capital Museum, which is partly powered by solar energy, generated by panels manufactured by Michigan-based Uni-Solar Company.     Geithner also met with representatives of eight U.S. clean energy companies with branches in China at the museum, pledging to learn from China and other countries to improve energy efficiency.     "The core part of the U.S.-China cooperation will be on the energy part. We expected it to be the central part of the new strategic and economic dialogue we just put in place," Geithner said.     "The world is gonna be watching what we do together as countries in this area, as they are watching us cooperate to help resolve the global recession of financial crisis," he said. Visiting U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (2nd R) meets with representatives of eight U.S. clean energy companies with branches in China, at Beijing's Capital Museum, June 2, 2009.At the end of Geithner's visit, Clinton and Geithner issued a joint statement on the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, saying the first meeting of the dialogue will be held in Washington D.C. "during the last week of July 2009."     They said, "The dialogue will focus on addressing the challenges and opportunities that both countries face on a wide range of bilateral, regional and global areas of immediate and long-term strategic interest."     Geithner left Beijing on Tuesday evening.

GUANGZHOU, May 24 (Xinhua) -- Heavy rains continued to hit south China's Guangdong Province on Sunday, triggering flood alert as rivers were swelling.     The downpours continued to sweep the Pearl River Delta area from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Sunday. Sixteen observation sites reported precipitation of more than 100 millimeters, the Guangdong Provincial Hydrological Bureau said.     Two people were killed in a rain-triggered landslide Friday midnight, in Xingning city in Guangdong's northeast.     The Changsha hydrological station in the lower reaches of the Tanjiang River saw a 2.5-meter-high water level at 11:35 a.m. Sunday, 40 centimeters higher than the warning level.     Another one, the Moyang river in western Guangdong is also swelling and expected to have a 5.8-meter flood peak at midday Monday.     From 8 a.m. Friday to 8 a.m. Sunday, the whole province had an average rainfall of 58 mm, with 170 mm in the Pearl River Delta area.     The provincial flood control and drought relief authorities have ordered local governments to closely monitor weather changes and brace for possible flooding.

PRAGUE, May 20 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called for closer relations between China and the Czech Republic at meetings with Czech leaders on Wednesday.     The Chinese government attaches great importance to its relationship with the Czech Republic and would like to push the ties to a new stage, Wen said in talks with Czech President Vaclav Klaus. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (L) meets with Czech President Vaclav Klaus in Prague, capital of Czech Republic, May 20, 2009Wen said the Czech Republic, together with other Central and Eastern European countries, is among the earliest nations that established diplomatic relations with China, and their bilateral relations have enjoyed a sound foundation.     This year marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the Czech Republic.     Wen said that in the past 60 years, friendship and cooperation have always been the main tone of bilateral ties despite profound changes in both countries and in the world at large.     He said that in recent years, China and the Czech Republic have maintained high-level contacts, with bilateral economic and trade cooperation deepened and social and cultural exchanges expanded.     Wen said China attaches great importance to its relations with the Czech Republic and is willing to take the 60th anniversary as an opportunity to enhance mutual political trust, expand trade and mutual investment, strengthen cooperation in science and environmental protection, promote non-governmental exchanges, and better coordinate in international affairs. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (2nd R) poses together with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso (1st R), Czech President Vaclav Klaus (2nd L), whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana at the 11th China-EU Summit in Prague, Czech Republic, May 20, 2009Klaus, who has visited China three times, said he was very impressed every time he visited China. The Czech Republic considers China an important partner and is willing to strengthen cooperation and exchanges with China in various fields, Klaus said.     He expressed hopes that more Czech companies would invest in China.     Wen met Klaus after attending the 11th China-EU summit held here earlier Wednesday. The Czech Republic holds the rotating EU presidency.     Wen praised the efforts made by Klaus for the success of the summit and spoke highly of his contribution to bilateral relations. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (L, front) meets with Czech Prime Minister Jan Fischer (R, front) in Prague, capital of Czech Republic, May 20, 2009Also on Wednesday, the Chinese premier met Czech Prime Minister Jan Fisher.     Wen said it is particularly important for China and the Czech Republic to work together amid the global financial crisis.     The Chinese government is willing to expand trade with the Czech Republic and increase mutual investment and take concrete actions to promote trade balance, said the premier.     China welcomes the efforts by Czech enterprises to further explore the Chinese market, Wen said, adding that the two sides can also try to jointly explore third-party markets.     Both sides should create a sound environment for investment and cooperation between enterprises, Wen said.     Fisher said the Czech Republic considers the 60th anniversary as a new milestone and would enhance political dialogue with China and reinforce cooperation in such sectors as trade, investment, tourism and culture.     He also called for joint efforts with China to tackle the international financial crisis and push bilateral ties to a new high. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (L) shakes hands with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso (R) as Czech President Vaclav Klaus, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, looks on at the 11th China-EU Summit in Prague, Czech Republic, May 20, 2009