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The number of missing in Californian wildfires has soared to 631, as authorities added hundreds of names to the lists of the unaccounted for Thursday, in what has become the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in the state's history.Butte County Sheriff and Coroner Kory Honea said Thursday evening the death toll from the Camp Fire in northern California had grown to 63 people. Seven sets of remains were discovered Thursday, he said.At least two other people have been killed in another, separate wildfire in Southern California, putting the state's death toll at 65 since the two blazes began last week.On Friday hundreds of rescue personnel -- deputies, National Guard troops and coroners -- dressed in white overalls sifted through smoldering rubble and checked mangled cars, searching for human remains.Honea said the number of names on the missing list soared after investigators added information from callers who rang the dispatch center on the day the fire erupted and reported people who were missing in the chaos.Some of the names on the Butte County list appear more than once and it's not clear if any are duplicates. Officials have said it's hard to determine the number of missing, because some people may have evacuated and can't be reached with cell phone service unreliable due to the fire."There are a lot of people displaced and we're finding a lot of people don't know we are looking for them," Honea said.The fire turned the hard-hit town of Paradise into ash and debris and also devastated the nearby communities of Magalia and Concow. Honea said three sets of remains were found Thursday in Paradise, three in Magalia and one in Concow.Honea has invited relatives of the missing to visit the sheriff's office in Oroville so authorities can collect DNA samples from them. The DNA will be used to help identify fire victims, Honea said."This is a daunting task. We feel really bad for the people who don't know what happened to their loved ones and our hearts go out to them," Butte County Sheriff's Investigations Sgt. Steve Collins said. "We want to give them some answers." 2132

The race for the White House has reached its final week, and millions of Americans have already gone to the polls to cast a ballot in the 2020 presidential election.On Wednesday, a number of national and state polls were released. In general, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in national polls, but battleground polls show a tightening race. A CNN poll of likely voters released Wednesday afternoon showed Biden leading Trump 54-42 in the popular vote, which is slightly tighter than the 57-41 advantage the CNN poll had for Biden in early October.Another poll, one conducted by the Economist/YouGov, showed Biden leading by 11%. Emerson released its poll on Wednesday showing Biden with a 5% edge. But one poll, the Rasmussen poll, shows Trump actually ahead nationally by 1%. Polls by Rasmussen have generally been more favorable than other national polls.One national poll released on Tuesday, conducted by CNBC, had Biden up 51-40.State pollingNo matter the margin of the popular vote, the number that matters the most is reaching 270 Electoral College votes. And in that respect, Biden is leading in the polls, but his leads in battleground states is much more fragile than his standing in the national polls.In Wisconsin, a poll released on Wednesday by Marquette gave Biden a 48-43 edge. An ABC News/Washington Post poll of Wisconsin gave Biden a much larger lead of 17%, which is a bit of an outlier from other polls of the state.In Michigan, Biden held a 51-44 lead in the ABC News/Washington Post poll while he led Trump in the New York Times/Sienna poll 49-41 on Wednesday.In North Carolina, the race was a statistical tie with Biden’s advantage well within the margin of error in Wednesday’s Civitas/Harper poll.In Georgia, Biden leads 50-46 in the Monmouth poll.In recent days, polling in Arizona, Florida and Iowa have generally been within the margin of error. Biden has held a very narrow lead in Pennsylvania.Comparing 2020 to 2016The landscape of the race six days out is somewhat similar to the 2016 race.One key difference is Clinton’s lead in national polls was generally smaller than Biden’s lead. The final CNN poll, which was released two weeks before the election, gave Clinton a 5% edge. The final CNBC poll gave Clinton a lead of 9%. But other reputable polls, such as the CBS News Poll, were more narrow. The CBS News poll gave Clinton just a 3% edge. Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by 2%.Battleground state polls generally were off by a margin of 5%, which is normal in a presidential election. What made things abnormal was those polling errors were just enough to flip the election for Trump in a number of states.In Michigan, a Detroit Free Press poll released a week before the election showed Clinton up by 4 percent. She ended up losing by .2 percent.In Pennsylvania, polls generally gave Clinton a modest lead. Her lead in the final CNN poll was 5 percent a week before the election. She ended up losing by 1 percent.Wisconsin was another state Trump won by about .5%. He trailed Clinton in the Marquette poll by 6% in the final days before the election. Compared to 2016, his deficit in the Marquette poll is slimmer in 2016 than it is currently.On the flip side, polling in Nevada did not suggest a Clinton win. A CNN poll had Trump up 51-46 just days before the election. Clinton won the state by 2%.What is conclusive in pollingWhile predicting a winner in the presidential election might be a challenge based on polls, they can give an insight on what voters are thinking.One clear difference in the polls is based on gender. Wednesday’s CNN poll gave Biden a 61-37 lead among women, while Trump won with men 48-47. The poll also showed Biden leading among independents 58-36.While voters were more inclined to say Biden would do a better job handling the coronavirus, health care, racial inequality in the US and crime and safety, a slim majority, 51-46, said that Trump would do a better job with the economy. 3972

The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The Michigan Department of Transportation says 40-50 cars and semis have been involved in an accident on I-94 in Jackson County, located about 80 miles west of Detroit.According to an MDOT traffic map, the crash appears to be on Westbound I-94 at Race Rd., exit 147 between Ann Arbor and Jackson.Three people reportedly suffered minor injuries in the pileup.According to the Jackson County Sheriff's Office, Michigan State Police, the Jackson County Sheriff's Office and Blackman-Leoni Public Safety are responding to the crash scene.Westbound I-94 is currently closed at the accident site.   610

The NFL is committing 0 million over 10 years to social justice initiatives, targeting what it calls “systemic racism” and supporting “the battle against the ongoing and historic injustices faced by African Americans.”The league, which has raised million in donations through its Inspire Change program, announced the additional 6 million commitment Thursday. It plans to “work collaboratively with NFL players to support programs to address criminal justice reform, police reforms, and economic and educational advancement.”Less than a week ago, Commissioner Roger Goodell denounced racism in a video prompted greatly by a players’ video seeking NFL action.“I am listening, and I will be reaching out to players who have raised their voices and others on how we can improve and go forward for a better and more united NFL family,” he said.The players want to see definitive action, of course. There has been increasing distrust of the NFL since San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick and others began kneeling during the national anthem in 2016 to protest social injustice and police brutality. The message was misconstrued by the league and many team owners as anti-military and anti-flag. Goodell admitted as much in his video, though never mentioning Kaepernick, who has not found an NFL job the last three seasons.That distrust was expressed Wednesday by 49ers star cornerback Richard Sherman.“They’ve tried their best to throw money behind it for a long time,” he said. “It takes more than that. It takes you literally calling out bigotry and being motivated. It’s not just pleading. It’s being consistent year in and year out that you’re combating this issue and that this is a problem that needs to change. And it’s not just this year, not just 2016, not just 2017, but ‘Black Lives Matter.’ They have to matter forever.”The Players Coalition was established in 2017 to work for social justice, growing out of the Kaepernick-inspired protests and pledging to improve police/community relations, champion criminal justice reform, and promote education and economic advancement in communities across the nation.Earlier this week, the coalition collected more than 1,400 signatures from active and retired athletes, coaches and executives from a variety of sports and presented them to Congress this week in support of a bill seeking to eliminate qualified immunity regarding police brutality. That bill was introduced in response to the deaths of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor while in police custody.Saints safety Malcolm Jenkins, a co-founder of the Players Coalition, spoke on CBS about the movement to defund police:“It doesn’t mean we eradicate police completely. We’ve got 10 million kids going to schools with police officers in them and no social workers. Three million that have got police in their schools and no nurses. Six million with police in their schools but no psychologists. Yet we want to invest in putting more police on the streets and over-policing that we know does not make our communities safer.“We’d rather see that money go to programs that help with entrepreneurship, that help with our schooling, that help with black people who have been disproportionately affected by COVID.”Some of the programs the NFL is targeting will deal with those issues, according to Anna Isaacson, the league’s senior vice president of social responsibility.“What this really is is a deeper and expanded commitment form the league and owners to say we are in this for the long haul,” she said. “It’s probably a deeper clarification on what we are meaning and focusing on. It has always been there, that focus, but obviously with current events and even before the last two weeks, conversations with the players have been on really focusing on this. Recent events solidified this has to be a key focus for us.”Isaacson mentions Big Brothers and Big Sisters, and Metro Peace Academy in Chicago as two organizations the league works with.“With Big Brothers and Big Sisters, we fund a program to bridge the gap in communication and understanding,” he said. “The program is pairing law enforcement officers with specific under-served youth, and those one-on-one relationships are to both the `Big’ and the `Little,′ as they call them, meant as a way to bridge whatever gaps exist. Building one-on-one relationships where trust is built and knowledge gained is essential.“In Chicago, we funded a program that does training with the community in how to work with their local police department and training with police on how to work with the community. That program is trying to reach the most at-risk youth and adults.“There are many such programs across the country that have started this work and are doing incredible work on the ground. We are looking for programs with a proven model and good track record and that has boots on the ground and treating people directly. National in scale, but that is truly the grass roots.“We’re making sure a lot of our grants are reaching down into the communities they serve, people to people and person to person.”___More AP NFL: https://apnews.com/NFL and https://twitter.com/AP_NFL 5156

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