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OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - A 16-year-old girl told Oceanside Police a man, possibly homeless, tried to kidnap her Thursday morning as she walked to El Camino High School. The girl was walking east on Mesa Drive near Vanilla Way at 7:20 a.m. and passed the man heading the opposite direction. After she walked by, the man turned and grabbed her in a bear hug, police said. The man struggled with the girl, who was able to break free when he fell to the ground, according to investigators. The girl arrived at school and notified security about the incident. Oceanside Police units and a drone were deployed to find the man but were not successful. The girl described the man as dirty or "possibly homeless" according to police, white, in his 50s, 5’9 inches tall, and very thin. He was wearing a tan pullover sweatshirt with a zipper and baggy black jeans. Police said the man may be bald on top of his head with short light brown hair on the sides. He also had a scab on the right side of his neck, the girl reported. Oceanside officers are asking anyone with information to call the department’s Family Protection Unit at 760-435-4690. 1144

On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

Opponents of President Donald Trump called “foul” on Tuesday, claiming that several moments during the Republican Convention violated the Hatch Act.The Hatch Act was designed to minimize the political activity of government employees.The Hatch Act was first passed in 1939, and has been updated and expanded several times since. Most recently, the Hatch Act was updated in 2012 under then President Barack Obama.Who is governed by the Hatch ActThe Hatch Act covers all federal workers except for the president and vice president. Government employees are generally classified under two umbrellas: Less restricted and more restricted.More restricted employees, such as employees in the Secret Service, CIA, FBI, and Federal Election Commission, are held to a stricter standard. For most White House employees, they fall under the “less restricted” category, but even then, the act places limits.Uniformed members of the military also fall under the “Hatch Act” in the “less restricted” category.What the Hatch Act allowsIt allows government officials to attend political events, rallies and fundraisers outside of their official duties. It also allows government employees to run for non-partisan office. And it allows government employees to express opinions on political issues and candidates while in a non-official role.What the Hatch Act prohibitsFor those under the “less restricted” category, federal employees cannot use their official authority or influence to interfere with or affect the result of an election or engage in political while the employee is on duty, in any federal room or building, while wearing a uniform or official insignia, or using any federally owned or leased vehicle.For those in the “more restrictive” category, employees are barred from taking an active part in partisan political campaigns.3 instances during RNC that raised questionsOn Tuesday, there were three moments that brought up questions on possible Hatch Act violations.- Citizenship ceremonyOn Tuesday, Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf officially swore in five new US citizens inside the White House. In this case, Wolf used his official capacity as acting Homeland Security secretary to swear in the new citizens.Also, moments before the swearing in, two fully-dressed Marines were seen in a video prepared by the RNC opening the door for Trump as he entered the room. Members of the military are also governed by the Hatch Act.- Secretary of state’s visitSecretary of State Mike Pompeo was on an official visit in Israel when he recorded his speech for the RNC. Sources told CNN that his speech was cleared by multiple lawyers, and that the RNC paid for his portion of the speech. - First lady Melania Trump’s speechFirst lady Melania Trump spoke from the White House Rose Garden on Tuesday. While presidents and their families have traditionally shied away from using the White House for re-election events, the Trumps have begun to embrace the complex, especially with in-person events being trimmed down due to the coronavirus pandemic. While the first lady is not a federal employee, and is not subject to the Hatch Act, using the White House would require staff to prepare the facility to be used for political purposes.Penalties for violating the Hatch ActViolating the Hatch Act could involve termination from your position and a civil fine. Last year, the Office of Special Counsel recommended that White House adviser Kellyanne Conway be terminated after she allegedly violated the Hatch Act on multiple occasions during television interviews and social media posts. Several other White House officials, including former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, have been warned by the Office of Special Counsel for political activities they have performed while on duty. Haley got dinged for retweeting a Trump tweet endorsing a congressional candidate.Several high ranking Obama administration officials, including Secretaries Julian Castro and Kathleen Sebelius, had also violated that Hatch Act. Like in Haley’s case, the officials were simply warned by the Office of Special Counsel. 4098

Opponents of President Donald Trump called “foul” on Tuesday, claiming that several moments during the Republican Convention violated the Hatch Act.The Hatch Act was designed to minimize the political activity of government employees.The Hatch Act was first passed in 1939, and has been updated and expanded several times since. Most recently, the Hatch Act was updated in 2012 under then President Barack Obama.Who is governed by the Hatch ActThe Hatch Act covers all federal workers except for the president and vice president. Government employees are generally classified under two umbrellas: Less restricted and more restricted.More restricted employees, such as employees in the Secret Service, CIA, FBI, and Federal Election Commission, are held to a stricter standard. For most White House employees, they fall under the “less restricted” category, but even then, the act places limits.Uniformed members of the military also fall under the “Hatch Act” in the “less restricted” category.What the Hatch Act allowsIt allows government officials to attend political events, rallies and fundraisers outside of their official duties. It also allows government employees to run for non-partisan office. And it allows government employees to express opinions on political issues and candidates while in a non-official role.What the Hatch Act prohibitsFor those under the “less restricted” category, federal employees cannot use their official authority or influence to interfere with or affect the result of an election or engage in political while the employee is on duty, in any federal room or building, while wearing a uniform or official insignia, or using any federally owned or leased vehicle.For those in the “more restrictive” category, employees are barred from taking an active part in partisan political campaigns.3 instances during RNC that raised questionsOn Tuesday, there were three moments that brought up questions on possible Hatch Act violations.- Citizenship ceremonyOn Tuesday, Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf officially swore in five new US citizens inside the White House. In this case, Wolf used his official capacity as acting Homeland Security secretary to swear in the new citizens.Also, moments before the swearing in, two fully-dressed Marines were seen in a video prepared by the RNC opening the door for Trump as he entered the room. Members of the military are also governed by the Hatch Act.- Secretary of state’s visitSecretary of State Mike Pompeo was on an official visit in Israel when he recorded his speech for the RNC. Sources told CNN that his speech was cleared by multiple lawyers, and that the RNC paid for his portion of the speech. - First lady Melania Trump’s speechFirst lady Melania Trump spoke from the White House Rose Garden on Tuesday. While presidents and their families have traditionally shied away from using the White House for re-election events, the Trumps have begun to embrace the complex, especially with in-person events being trimmed down due to the coronavirus pandemic. While the first lady is not a federal employee, and is not subject to the Hatch Act, using the White House would require staff to prepare the facility to be used for political purposes.Penalties for violating the Hatch ActViolating the Hatch Act could involve termination from your position and a civil fine. Last year, the Office of Special Counsel recommended that White House adviser Kellyanne Conway be terminated after she allegedly violated the Hatch Act on multiple occasions during television interviews and social media posts. Several other White House officials, including former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, have been warned by the Office of Special Counsel for political activities they have performed while on duty. Haley got dinged for retweeting a Trump tweet endorsing a congressional candidate.Several high ranking Obama administration officials, including Secretaries Julian Castro and Kathleen Sebelius, had also violated that Hatch Act. Like in Haley’s case, the officials were simply warned by the Office of Special Counsel. 4098

ORLANDO, Fla. – Disney Cruise Line announced Friday that it’s suspending all of its departures through Feb. 28 as the United States experiences the worst spike in COVID-19 cases and deaths since the pandemic began.Disney said in a statement that sailings are canceled onboard the Disney Magic through Feb. 2, through Feb. 26 for Disney Wonder and Disney Dream, and through Feb. 27 for Disney Fantasy.“Our team at Disney Cruise Line remains focused on the health and well-being of our Guests and team members,” wrote Disney. “We are continuing to carefully review the guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and are working toward resuming operations.”Guests booked on affected sailings who have paid their reservation in full will be offered the choice of a cruise credit to be used for a future sailing or a full refund. Customers who have not paid their reservations in full will automatically receive a refund f what they have paid so far.Affected guests and travel agents will receive an email from Disney Cruise Line outlining details and next steps.Those who've booked directly with Disney Cruise Line and have questions should call (866) 325-6685 or (407) 566-7797. Guests who booked through a travel agent should contact them directly with any questions.Disney Cruise Line isn’t alone in suspending its cruises. Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line also announced this week that they’re suspending most of their voyages until the end of February.Carnival announced Thursday that they were canceling it is cruise operations in February from Miami, Port Canaveral, and Galveston. They are also moving its inaugural sailing of their Mardi Gras ship to April 24, 2021.These suspensions come as the U.S. continues to break grim coronavirus records. The nation surpassed the 14 million mark in confirmed cases of COVID-19 Thursday and set new records in both daily recorded cases and daily deaths.On Thursday alone, Johns Hopkins says that the U.S. reported 2,879 deaths linked to COVID-19, and 217,664 more people were confirmed to have contracted the virus. 2100

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