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Housing and rates are worrying some economists that a recession is looming."One of the biggest concerns is the housing market," said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist for Stifel, on CNNMoney's "Markets Now" live show Wednesday. "It's throwing up a very large red flag and suggests maybe this 4% growth we saw in the second quarter is not sustainable."Home sales?have declined in four of the past five months as housing prices have grown -- but paychecks have remained stagnant. Many people can't afford to buy homes, and those who can are taking on a lot of debt to get into them.Piegza says that echoes what happened right before the Great Recession in 2008."We're not there yet, but this is what led us to the housing crash," she said.How could this happen again? Piegza believes that a decade of rock-bottom interest rates helped people forget about the dangers of borrowing too much."I don't know if we learned our lesson from the Great Recession," she said. "We are going back to a lot of the easy lending that we used to see."Although Piegza said a recession isn't necessarily imminent -- especially after quarterly growth just came in at the fastest pace in almost four years -- there are signs of waning momentum in the economy.Interest rates, for example, are starting to become a bad omen.The Federal Reserve, which finished up its two-day meeting Wednesday, is expected to raise its target rate two more times this year. Higher rates have boosted short-term US Treasury bond rates. But the longer-term bond rates haven't risen along with the shorter-term rates, because investors are growing wary about the economy over the long haul.With two more interest rate hikes planned, the Fed could boost short-term rates higher than long-term ones, inverting the so-called yield curve. An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in modern history."We could easily be there by the end of the year," Piegza said. "I think we'll see pressure on the longer end by the end of the year, but the Fed will still be raising rates on the short end."Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that he is not concerned about an inverted yield curve. Piegza strongly disagrees."It is a predictive measure of a recession," she said. 2266

In a rare public appearance since he was fired from office, former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called President Donald Trump "undisciplined" and claimed that Trump would often ask him to do things unaware that such actions would violate the law."When the President would say, 'Here's what I want to do and here's how I want to do it.' And I'd have to say to him, 'Well Mr. President, I understand what you want to do, but you can't do it that way. It violates the law. It violates treaty,'" Tillerson said Thursday night at a fundraiser in Houston for the MD Anderson Cancer Center, according to video of the event posted by CBS News.He went on to add, "He got really frustrated ... I think he grew tired of me being the guy every day that told him you can't do that and let's talk about what we can do."In response, Trump tweeted, "Rex Tillerson, didn’t have the mental capacity needed. He was dumb as a rock and I couldn’t get rid of him fast enough. He was lazy as hell."Mike Pompeo is doing a great job, I am very proud of him. His predecessor, Rex Tillerson, didn't have the mental capacity needed. He was dumb as a rock and I couldn't get rid of him fast enough. He was lazy as hell. Now it is a whole new ballgame, great spirit at State!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 7, 2018 1312

In a deeply divided political climate, Washington witnessed a rare moment of unity on Monday as lawmakers from both sides of the aisle came together to remember George H.W. Bush.The Republican former President died on Friday at the age of 94. On Monday, his body was brought to the US Capitol rotunda where Bush will lie in state until Wednesday morning, an honor reserved for government officials and military officers.Democrats and Republicans remain locked in a standoff over funding for President Donald Trump's border wall that could trigger a partial government shutdown in the coming days and Washington is still reeling from a divisive midterm campaign season where the leaders of both parties were targets and Trump frequently went on the attack on the campaign trail.But for at least a few hours, the two parties appeared to put their political differences aside.As crowds began to gather outside, a ceremony was held inside the rotunda where Capitol Hill's highest-ranking Republican and Democratic lawmakers joined together in paying tribute to the former President.Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stood side-by-side as a wreath was placed alongside the casket. In another image of unity, House Speaker Paul Ryan and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi did the same several minutes later, standing next to one another as a second wreath was placed.Pelosi, who is vying to become House speaker when Democrats take control of the House of Representatives in the new Congress, stood next to Kevin McCarthy, who will serve as the House Republican leader in the next Congress, as lawmakers filed in at the start of the event and the two could be seen speaking to one another.Earlier in the day, McConnell and Schumer both gave speeches on the Senate floor praising the former President."He embodied the characteristics we admire in a president: integrity, civility, dignity, humility," Schumer said during his speech. The Senate Democratic leader added, "I knew him to be a fine man. A decent man. And even when he opposed your views, you knew he was doing what he thought was best for the United States of America."A long list of prominent current and former officials gathered inside the rotunda to pay their respects.Vice President Mike Pence delivered a speech. Prominent former lawmakers, including former Senate Majority Leader Republican Bill Frist, were seen at the Capitol as were sitting Supreme Court justices, including Clarence Thomas, who was nominated to the bench by Bush.Outside the Capitol, a long line of people waiting to pay their respects to the 41st President began to form early in the evening. Starting at around 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, members of the public began to be allowed into the rotunda to view the casket.Joe McGarvey, a 62-year old Democrat, was one of the people who waited in line to pay his respects to what he described as "a man who gave a life of service to the country.""I'm a Democrat, but as President, he did a lot of good things," McGarvey said during a brief interview. He described Bush as a "very humble, caring person -- you could tell, just how he treated people."As McGarvey waited, the temperature began to drop. "It's getting a little cold here," he said, "even though I'm standing out here in the cold, I'm glad I did it."Stephen Keblish and Nate Crossett from Utica, New York said they had driven down to Washington, DC that morning.Keblish described it as a "once in a lifetime kind of opportunity.""It's a sort of pilgrimage in a way. There aren't a lot of opportunities for ritual in this day and age especially as a country so I wanted to partake in something like that," he added.Christine Dube, who lives in Vermont, but travels to DC periodically for work, said she believes Bush was from an era where people did "the right thing and you care about America and that comes first.""I think maybe people need to start thinking about that a bit more," she said, "following that set of values, not fighting with each other, agreeing to disagree, doing what we're supposed to do, take care of each other ... not be at odds with each other all the time.""Our country needs to come together," Dube said, adding, "Regardless of what your political views are, I think everybody at heart wants to see our country do well."Among those also paying respect Monday evening: the President and first lady Melania Trump, who stood in front of Bush's casket in the Rotunda at around 8:30 p.m. ET. 4520

In an interview with the Washington Post, FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said that the agency is proposing a ban on menthol cigarettes citing youth and minority smoking rates. According to the New York Times, a ban on menthol cigarettes could take several years to execute. It is a move that other nations have made. Canada has already implemented such a ban, and the European Union's menthol ban goes into effect in 2020. According to the FDA, menthol may reduce the irritation and harshness of smoking. According to FDA statistics, more than half of youth smokers smoke menthols. Also, a disproportionate number of minorities smoke menthols. Studies have also suggested that using menthol makes it more difficult to quit smoking, the FDA says. There have been groups, such as the African American Tobacco Control Leadership Council, that have pushed the federal government to ban menthol cigarettes. The council's co-chair, Phillip Gardiner, told the Washington Post, "I’m sorry it has taken the FDA so long to come around but I’m glad they finally are. They should have done it 10 years ago and saved hundreds of thousands of lives."According to FDA figures, more than 19 million Americans smoke menthols.  1273

In a typical year, you might expect to see holiday decor start to crowd out the Halloween candy around mid-October. But in 2020, the holiday shopping season has felt like it started even earlier due to the changes brought about by the pandemic.Social distancing concerns have forced retailers to rethink their promotional plans, and Amazon’s rescheduled Prime Day in mid-October kicked off the seasonal incentives to shop early and often.So far it seems to have worked: Plenty of people have gotten a head start on their holiday shopping this year. Forty-two percent of holiday shoppers said they started earlier this year than they normally do, according to a November survey from the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.The survey also found that 59% of holiday shoppers had already started making purchases well ahead of Black Friday. Compare that to 10 years ago, when only 38% of respondents had already gotten a running start in early November.As the holiday stretches out into a multi-month marathon, will Black Friday matter this year? Well, sort of. The holiday isn’t going anywhere—and stores won’t let you forget about it. But it’s going to look a lot different in 2020.1. Black Friday Won’t Start on Thanksgiving DayIn recent years, retailers were kicking off Black Friday by starting in-store sales nearly 24 hours early: on Thanksgiving Day itself. But pandemic concerns may have put an abrupt end to this trend.Major retailers like Kohl’s, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Target announced as early as July that they would break their traditions of opening stores early for Black Friday and simply stay closed on Thanksgiving Day.“Let’s face it: Historically, deal hunting and holiday shopping can mean crowded events, and this isn’t a year for crowds,” Target said in a blog post outlining its holiday plans.Walmart will also be closed on Thanksgiving Day, opting instead to keep regular Wednesday hours, then reopen at 5 a.m. on Friday. It’s the first time the retail giant has opted against Thanksgiving Day hours since the 1980s.Experts say people will still shop on Thanksgiving, but will do so online. “After the pumpkin pie, they’ll go to the couch with their computer and that’s where they’ll start their Black Friday shopping,” said Rod Sides, vice chairman and U.S. leader of retail and distribution at Deloitte.Although stores may keep their locations closed or limit their hours on Thanksgiving, their websites are always open, meaning a company can still pull in revenue that day without incurring the cost of staffing stores. Retailers have seen a huge increase in online sales, after years of declining foot traffic in stores, so cutting Thanksgiving Day hours is unlikely to be a huge stretch even without coronavirus concerns.“The pandemic has made that choice [to close] a lot easier,” said Seth Basham, a retail analyst at Wedbush Securities.2. Some Retailers Are Rejecting Black FridayFor some retailers, going against the Black Friday grain is a big part of company culture.Outdoor retailer REI will be closed on Black Friday for the sixth year in a row in 2020. The co-op’s “Opt Outside” campaign closes its stores, distribution centers and call centers on Black Friday in an effort to encourage people to spend the day outside with family and friends instead of shopping.But while REI was once the outlier, it may have some company this year. Ecommerce footwear brand Allbirds will actually raise prices on Black Friday, increasing the price for every item on its website by with the spare buck going toward organizations mitigating climate change.Even stores you might not immediately think of for Black Friday savings are changing things up this year. California grocery store chain Gelson’s announced it will have reduced hours on Thanksgiving, then be closed all day on Nov. 27 to acknowledge employees’ response to the pandemic.3. Doorbusters Are DoneForget waking up at 4 a.m. to be first in line for a great deal on Black Friday. The doorbuster deal, which offers a low price for a period of just a few hours, is a thing of the past.“There will be less emphasis on doorbuster-type offers this year, because social distancing makes it harder to queue up,” said Sides. There will still be limited-time or limited-quantity offers for some sale items, but Sides expects fewer people will feel compelled to line up to access deals. Deloitte’s research shows that people are planning to start shopping later in the day if they venture out on Black Friday.Instead, retailers are encouraging people to shop during far wider discounting windows. Macy’s, for example, is promoting “All-day specials” on Black Friday, while Best Buy’s newspaper ad for Black Friday sales notes which prices are available starting on Sunday, Nov. 22, Thanksgiving Day (online) or Nov. 28.4. Deals Are Everywhere, All The TimeWhy wait for Black Friday to shop when there’s a sale around every corner?By November 10—just 10 days into what Adobe considers the start of the holiday season, .7 billion had been spent online—21% higher than the same period in 2019.Retailers of all sizes have rethought how they will present holiday discounts this year. Walmart, for one, is breaking its usual Black Friday deals into “Black Friday Deals for Days,” rolling out sale prices at regular intervals during the entire month of November rather than wait until Nov. 27. On days when stores open early to offer in-store savings, customers will need to wait in a socially-distanced line and employees will limit the number of people who can enter.But before the pandemic, holiday shopping was already spreading out over the long Thanksgiving weekend instead of being concentrated on Black Friday. Now, the holiday shopping season has given rise to Small Business Saturday for supporting local shops and Cyber Monday for online shopping, plus big days like Green Monday (the second Monday of December), Free Shipping Day (usually around December 15) and Super Saturday (the last Saturday before Christmas).If every day is a shopping holiday, the need to cram all your shopping into Black Friday feels unnecessary.Read more: How To Budget For Holiday Shopping When The Season Is Now Twice As LongThe Name Will Remain, Even if Black Friday’s Luster FadesIt’s not impossible for Black Friday to have a post-pandemic rebound, Sides said, but the impact of the day has already waned.“We all like the hustle and bustle a little bit, but folks have figured out they don’t need additional stress” during the holidays, Sides said. There are just as many sales taking place online as there are in stores, and not everyone who goes to their local store is actually shopping on the spot—many will choose to buy online, pick up in-store or via curbside.Basham predicted that we won’t see as much of a peak in revenue during the five-day period over Thanksgiving weekend—even for online purchases. This has already been evident with other holidays in this pandemic-adjusted year: Labor Day purchases usually concentrated into a week or less were spread out over a three-week period, Basham said. By giving shoppers a longer period of time to snag a deal, it helps retailers manage demand around those high-excitement times.And that excitement will still drive consumers. “They want a call to action,” Basham said. While the right price may be the thing that convinces a shopper to make the purchase at that moment, they still need cues on the calendar to know when to start looking for those discounts. 7523