吉林阴茎延长术怎么做吉林哪里的医院治疗早泄好,吉林射出的精子发黄怎么回事,吉林包皮环切费用,吉林前列腺炎疾病怎么治疗好,吉林包皮手术哪种好,吉林男科比较好的医院是哪家,吉林细菌性前列腺炎做哪些检查

One student was killed in a shooting at Freeman High School near Spokane, Washington, Fire Chief Brian Schaeffer said at a news conference.Three other juveniles are in stable condition at a hospital.The suspect was detained, the Spokane County Sheriff's Office tweeted. 277

On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

OCEANSIDE (CNS) - Two cars overturned into an embankment off Interstate 5 near Camp Pendleton Sunday, but the people inside both vehicles were able to escape without serious injuries.A silver car lost control and sideswiped another car on northbound I-5 past Las Pulgas Road shortly after 11 a.m., California Highway Patrol dispatchers were told.Several drivers pulled over to help, and the people inside both cars were able to get out before CHP officers and fire personnel got to the scene, according to a CHP incident log.At least one person was hurt, but the injuries were described as minor. 609

Not to beat a dead horse @DisneylandToday, but currently Main Street Cinema is trending on Twitter. Just a hint at how upset people are over this felonious attack on a piece of Disneyland history. This decision maker needs to be dealt with.— Fresh Baked! (@FrshBakedDisney) June 14, 2019 303

On Wednesday, police arrested a suspect they believe is behind a series of unsolved killings, rapes and assaults in the 1970s and 1980s, including the deaths of Harrington's family members.RELATED:?Golden State killer suspect arrested, identified as Joseph James DeAngeloJoseph James DeAngelo was charged with capital murder in the 1978 killing of Katie and Brian Maggiore. The 72-year-old former police officer is believed to be linked to 12 killings and at least 50 rapes in California, police said.Harrington and dozens of survivors had only known the mysterious killer as "the Original Night Stalker," "East Area Rapist," and the "Golden State Killer." 664