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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The coronavirus pandemic has put extra pressure and stress on families across San Diego. Now, experts worry that could be leading to a rise in child abuse."It's extraordinarily troubling," says Dr. Shalon Nienow, the Child Abuse Pediatrics Program's Clinical Director at Rady Children's Hospital's Chadwick Center."Since we started the pandemic, our volume has increased," Dr. Nienow says, noting that outpatient services are up 82% and inpatient treatment is up 75% since mid-March.Studies over the last decade have shown that economic struggles often lead to increases in child abuse. Nienow believes the Pandemic coupled with the economic downturn, has made it worse."People are isolated," Dr. Nienow says. "They don't have access to support services, and they're forced to take on roles they're not prepared for, such as being a teacher."The increased instances of child abuse and maltreatment may not be purely physical. San Diego County District Attorney Summer Stephan says her office has seen a dramatic increase in internet crimes against children during the pandemic. She says the amount has quadrupled since March."Kids are at home, they're on their tablets," Stephan explains. "On the internet, the predatory behavior of people trying to sexually exploit and recruit and get our kids to go into harm's way is really exploding... There is a direct correlation between kids being at home, out of school, out of their sports, and the increase of predatory and abusive crimes against them."Making matters worse, says Stephan and Dr. Nienow, is that the number of calls and reports of child abuse to Child Welfare Services has dropped dramatically since March.An ABC 10News Investigation in early April showed a nearly 60% drop in calls to CWS at the start of the pandemic. The county says now they're still seeing a 30% drop.In 2019, CWS fielded around 27,000 calls from April through August. In 2020, CWS took only approximately 19,000 calls."We certainly know families have more needs now than ever before and are struggling with all of the effects from the pandemic," says Dr. Kimberly Giardina, the Director of San Diego County Child Welfare Services.Experts believe the drop in calls is because kids are spending less time around teachers and doctors, who are legally required to report any signs of abuse they see."They tend to be a significant safety net for kids, and now that safety net is somewhat gone," says Dr. Nienow."Our teachers and counselors are the eyes and ears," adds Stephan. "They are the Safe Harbor."In their absence, the County and DA's office has launched training programs, which teach people how to recognize signs of abuse during online interactions like Zoom classes or telehealth visits. The county also authorized million in CARES Act funding to pay for community outreach and education.Stephan also sent a 7-page letter to Governor Gavin Newsom, detailing the scope of the problem. She asked him to take it into account when deciding whether or not to let schools reopen for in-person learning."I felt a responsibility that these alarming statistics become part of that conversation because the health of our kids and their safety has to be paramount," says Stephan.Dr. Giardina says Child Welfare Services is also working hard to make sure kids are safe. Their employees follow up on every call they receive and found ways to conduct in-person visits during the pandemic safely."We are out there," she says. "Our staff are working hard every day to make sure that those kids are safe."Experts all say it has become critical for parents, other family members, and neighbors to report any signs of abuse they see."Educate yourself," says Stephan. "Educate your children so that they can remain safe while we wait for our life to go back to normal and for kids to go back to school and to the safety of having those mandatory reporters.""It takes a village to raise healthy kids," says Dr. Nienow. "Especially now, when people are expected to deal with different stressors in their life, providing support to those families is really important."For more information, or to report suspected child abuse, call the County Hotline at 858-560-2191. You can also call 211.Within the state of California, you can call toll free, 1-800-344-6000. 4307

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The brother-in-law of a woman killed in a murder-suicide in Paradise Hills spoke to 10News about her relationship with the father of her young sons.On the morning of Nov. 16, 29-year-old Sabrina Rosario and her four sons were shot by the boys' father in a home on Flintridge Drive, according to San Diego police.Rosario and three of her sons died, and the boys' father -- identified as 31-year-old Jose Valdivia -- shot himself to death after killing the family members.As of Sunday afternoon, Rosario's 9-year-old son, Ezequiel, was in an induced coma at Rady Children's Hospital.RELATED: Parents, 3 children killed in Paradise Hills murder-suicideKarl Albright, Rosario's brother-in-law, told 10News, "No one thinks it's going to happen until it's happened."Albright said he has so many questions about what led Valdivia to gun down his wife and children. According to Albright, Valdivia's infidelity broke Rosario's heart a year ago, and she decided to end things."She had made her mind up that it's over, and he didn't want to accept that," Albright said. "He wanted it back. And he tried to, the love way, and then he tried the fear way, and he tried every way in between to try to break through, but she stood her ground."Albright said Valdivia's threatening texts and stalker behavior escalated six months ago when he bragged about purchasing a gun.Albright explained Valdivia would tell Rosario, "I'm going to come over and kill myself in front of you guys. I'm going to kill you guys, then kill myself."Rosario told him that he sounded like the boy who cried wolf, according to Albright.A records search shows two cases of domestic violence in 2019. On Nov. 15, police said Rosario spent the whole day at court obtaining a restraining order against her husband.When he called that night, she told him she had no other choice. He never called back.Albright said she told him that their problems would be solved, and her children would be safe."Even what they were living in, and what she was going through in the house, she had an umbrella over the kids, and it never fazed them," Albright said.Instead, the next morning, police said the children's father came into the granny flat on Flintridge Drive and shot his wife and four children in the head before shooting himself.Rosario and 3-year-old Enzi died at the home. Five-year-old Zuriel, 9-year-old Ezequiel, and 11-year-old Zeth were rushed to the hospital. Zuriel and Zeth did not make it.Life will never be the same for relatives who live next door."Now that Thanksgiving is coming up and Christmas. We've already got Christmas gifts for the kids and for her," Albright said.Those gifts will remain under the tree in their honor."They were fun-loving. They were well-raised. They were very good kids. And she was the mother you wish you had," Albright said.Albright set up a GoFundMe campaign for his family. To contribute, click here. 2928

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The Martin Luther King Jr. Community Choir San Diego has filled the community with music, funded dreams, and kept African American history alive for three decades.The group started with a local alliance of ministers from different denominations who came together for an annual concert to raise funds for students aspiring to a career in visual and performing arts, according to the choir director Kenneth Anderson."I think they are woefully undervalued in our country the power of art and how it can connect and communicate and bring people together when we're so driven apart," 20-year choir member Dale Fleming said.In 1990, the singers decided to created the MLK Community Choir so they could sing year-round.Andersen said, "It was non-audition but somehow all of these different timbres and levels of musicianship come together to make a beautiful sound."The religious tone of the group has changed over the years. "Some don't really believe at all but we all believe in the power of music," Fleming said.They still sing gospel, and write their own hymns to keep Black history alive."A majority of the spirituals that survived were code songs. When they sang about leaders in the bible, especially Moses, but Jesus and God, that was code for Harriet Tubman," Anderson explained.The group has flourished, touring through seven countries, creating and selling CDs, even singing for Pope John Paul II at the Vatican in 2004. You may have also seen them at December Nights."He was alive the next year but not well enough to come out, so we ended up being at his last Easter mass," Anderson said.The next time they perform is at 7 p.m. on Feb. 22 at St. James by the Sea in La Jolla. 1709

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The final touches are going into Petco Park before Thursday's highly-anticipated opening day. But just a few blocks away from the stadium are the many faces of San Diego’s homeless crisis, where several resources and services are located. Homeless advocate Michael McConnell spends many early mornings on the streets of downtown, documenting police interactions with the homeless population. Since the Hepatitis A outbreak he’s seen the number of encampments go down, but say he's frustrated over the city’s response to fixing the problem. “I’m most frustrated that there's not a strategy that's solutions-focused, long term thinking about actually reducing homelessness versus reducing the visibility of homelessness," said McConnell. On Wednesday morning, one day before Padres Opening Day, McConnell captured several interactions with police and the homeless around Petco Park and East Village. He believes the enforcement is the city trying to push homeless people away from the stadium before thousands of people descend on downtown. “When we have to send out massive amounts of law enforcement to clear an area, to make things appear better, versus them actually being better, we know we failed," said McConnell.10News also spoke with several security guards in the area who say they witnessed more enforcement than usual. However, San Diego Police says the enforcement around East Village is unrelated to Opening Day and that no additional officers were sent to the area Wednesday morning. They say officers are in this area every day as it's one of their busiest sectors in the city. A representative tells 10News they respond to daily complaints from business and residents to address ongoing problems, including encampments, drug use, and other criminal activity.Since last summer they've responded to 5,000 of these complaints through the Get It Done app alone.The department says during each contact they always offer help to individuals. If assistance is denied they have a progressive enforcement model which begins with warnings. But McConnell says based on what he's witnessed day in and day out, he's not satisfied with this answer.“What we’ve done is we’ve moved a lot of people around, we don’t let encampments build up again, but the folks are still there, they haven’t disappeared," said McConnell. 10News reached out to the Mayor's Office and received this response: 2415

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