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BEIJING, Feb. 22 -- China's stock markets are likely to be fully open to foreign investors within 15 years, according to a leading investment expert.Direct foreign dealing in Chinese stocks is currently restricted through the government's Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) scheme.The current annual quota for overseas funds is just billion, a small fraction of the total investment in China's main exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen.Stuart Leckie, chairman of Stirling Finance, a leading Hong Kong-based pensions investment adviser, said all restrictions could be off by 2025."All financial institutions will then be able to invest in the stock markets on the Chinese mainland, just as they do in Hong Kong, Japan or any other market," he said."It is 30 years since China's opening up and it will take half as long again for this to happen."He said the Chinese mainland would gradually lift barriers in the same way Taiwan and India have done in recent years.Leckie, author of the book, 'Pensions in China', and who was speaking at the Trade Tech 2010 Investment Conference, was bullish about the outlook for the Chinese market.He said the Shanghai Composite Index could double within the next three years and that it was a matter of if, not when, it returned to its all-time high of 6,124 in October 2007."I am sure the index will double over the next five years but there is a chance it will double in the next three years," he said.Other speakers at the conference were also optimistic about the outlook for investors in Chinese stocks. Michael Wang, head of dealing at the China International Fund Management said the Chinese market was full of opportunities."It is a golden opportunity to invest in China. Blue chip companies are still very cheap," he said. "In the medium term there might be some correction but we won't go back to 2006 levels (when the market was just over the 1,000 level)."Kent Rossiter, head of trading, Asia Pacific, for fund manager RCM, based in Hong Kong and which is part of the Allianz Group, was also confident. "I am really bullish about opportunities. I am worried about volatility, however," he said.Rossiter said some of the volatility was down to the inexperience and lack of competence of some professional investors in the Chinese market."The market needs to develop," he said. "Professional investors need to improve their performances. They have too much of the same mentality as the man on the street in that they just like to buy and sell without taking any view."Leckie added that the Chinese market was not about to repeat the experience of the Nikkei Dow in Japan."China is not about to become another Japan with the level of the index standing at a quarter of what it was 20 years ago."He was not concerned about the poor start to the Chinese markets in 2010 with the major index losing 8 per cent of its value in January and falling through the 3,000 barrier. It increased by 80 per cent in 2009. "Obviously China has got off to a weak start. It was the second worst performing market internationally in January after being the best performing in 2009. It is just living up to its reputation as a volatile index."He said he expected the market, however, to rise by up to 15 per cent in 2010 to a value somewhere between 3,600 and 3,800 from its January 1 level of 3,277. "I think this January decline is overdone."

BEIJING, March 12 (Xinhua) -- China's central bank said Friday a stronger yuan offers no help for solving the Sino-U.S. trade imbalance problem, and China opposes politicizing yuan's appreciation.Su Ning, vice governor of the People's Bank of China, made the comments a day after U.S. President Barack Obama told the U.S. Export-Import Bank's annual conference that a more market-oriented exchange rate of yuan will make an essential contribution to global rebalancing efforts."We do not think a country should rely others to solve its own problems," Su, a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee, said on the sidelines of the top political advisory body's annual session.The U.S. Department of Commerce said on March 11 that the U.S. trade deficit with China increased to 18.3 billion U.S. dollars in January from 18.14 billion U.S. dollars in December. The increase renewed the U.S. call for a stronger yuan as it claimed the current exchange rate gives Chinese goods unfair price advantages.Su said although yuan has gained more than 20 percent since it depegged the U.S. dollars in June 2005, China's trade surplus tripled from 100 billion U.S. dollars in 2004 to nearly 300 billion U.S. dollars in 2008.In addition, he argued, a weaker U.S. dollar does not help cut the U.S. deficit. As the U.S. dollar depreciated by 3 percent annually in average between 2002 and 2008, its deficit soared from 500 billion U.S. dollars to 900 billion U.S. dollars, Su said.Tan Yaling, a financial researcher with Peking University, said as nations have different roles in international trade and differ in resources, what they produce, consume and want can be very different."It is unfair that the United States, on the one hand, consumes cheap Chinese goods, while on the other hand, it blames the low prices for causing their domestic job losses," she said.The Obama administration's continuous calls for a stronger yuan is actually aimed at diverting attentions from its domestic woes, experts said.To grapple with high unemployment rate and uncertain recovery prospects, Obama has to do something on job promotion to secure victory in the mid-term election in November this year, said Chen Zhiwu, a financial professor with Yale University.To curb soaring unemployment and boost growth, Obama has announced a special task force on a mission of doubling the U.S. exports in five years, as he said the U.S. can not "stand on the sidelines," as other countries are busy negotiating trade deals.Cheng Enfu, a deputy to the National People' s Congress (NPC), China' s top legislature, said the consistent pressure from the United States is simply because of its pursuit of national interests."Over-fast appreciation of yuan does no good to the global economic recovery which is still fragile and uncertain," he said.Zhu Yuchen, also an NPC deputy, said as China plays a leading role in global economic recovery, any drastic policy change will not only impair China's economy, but also the global recovery, which is not a responsible way.President Obama's remarks also came a month ahead of a semiannual Treasury Department report that could label China as a currency manipulator.Premier Wen Jiabao said in the government work report delivered to the NPC on March 5 that China will keep the yuan "basically stable" at an "appropriate and balanced" level.HEFTY SURPLUS, BUT SLIM PROFITSAlthough China has accumulated massive trade surplus over the past decades, that does not indicate the same profits, as more than half of China's exporters are foreign invested, lawmakers said.Figures released by the Ministry of Commerce showed 55.2 percent of China's foreign trade was completed by foreign-invested businesses last year. And 56 percent of the exports were done by foreign companies in China.Cheng Enfu said China only pockets paper-thin profits from the very end of the manufacturing chain, or processing and assembling work. However, the United States earn handsome profits from designing and distribution.According to a study by researchers of the University of California, of the 299 U.S. dollars retail value of a 30-gigabyte video iPod in the United States, 163 U.S. dollars is captured by American companies and workers, and 132 U.S. dollars go to parts makers in other Asian countries, while the final assembly, done in China, cost only about 4 U.S. dollars a unit."Even though Chinese workers contribute only about 1 percent of the value of the iPod, the export of a finished iPod to the United States directly contributes about 150 U.S. dollars to our bilateral trade deficit with the Chinese," Hal R. Varian, a professor of the University of California at Berkeley, wrote on the New York Times on June 28, 2007.Cheng Enfu noted it needs to upgrade exports product mix to fundamentally reverse China's disadvantages. That is, to export more profitable self-innovative products, rather than labor-intensive processing goods.

BEIJING, Jan. 21 (Xinhua) -- China's yuan-denominated individual home mortgage lending rose 1.4 trillion yuan (204.98 billion U.S. dollars) in 2009, up 47.9 percent from the previous year, said a report issued by the People's Bank of China, the central bank, on Wednesday.The growth rate was 37.4 percentage points higher than the previous year, said the report on China's investment flow in 2009.Meanwhile, the yuan-denominated property development lending gained 576.4 billion yuan in 2009, up 30.7 percent year on year, and the growth rate was 20.4 percentage points more than the previous year, the report said.The total mid-term and long-term loans in foreign and domestic currency expanded 7.1 trillion yuan in 2009, up 43.5 percent from the previous year, and the growth rate was 23.4 percentage points more than the previous year.The short-term loans in foreign and domestic currency expanded 2.3 trillion yuan, up 758.5 billion yuan from the same period last year.Industrial mid-term and long-term loans in foreign and domestic currency added 1 trillion yuan among China's major financial institutions, up 26 percent from the previous year.Infrastructure mid-term and long-term loans in foreign and domestic currency expanded 2.5 trillion yuan, up 43 percent from the same period last year, according to the report.The central bank said on Jan. 15 that China's new yuan-denominated lending in 2009 hit a record 9.59 trillion yuan (1.4 trillion U.S. dollars), almost double that of the previous year.

BEIJING, Jan. 28 (Xinhua) -- A draft regulation on expropriation of houses and relevant compensation is expected to be made public Friday to solicit comments.China's Legislative Affairs Office of the State Council, or cabinet, is going to release the full text of the draft on its website, www.chinalaw.gov.cn.The draft spells out the conditions, due process and compensation of expropriation intended for public interest, such as national defense, key national projects of energy, transportation and education.The draft says local government should, by holding hearings or adopting other opinion soliciting methods, ensure that the public opinions can be heard.The draft also provides that compensation to the house owners should not be less than the market price of similar houses.The draft stresses that no violence, coercion, or other illegal means, such as cutting off the water or power supply of the houses, can be employed in demolition procedures.Demolition for the need to upgrade the quality of dangerous and old buildings should not be carried out without the approval of 90 percent of the house owners, the draft says.The public is invited to comment on the draft regulation any time before Feb. 12 via online postings, email or letters.

LONDON, March 15 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Barack Obama's pressure on China over its currency's exchange rate is a manifestation of hypocrisy from the West and will not work, a British economist has said."The president is playing with fire... Obama really should tread carefully. At the same time, the United States is now at risk of sparking what could be an all-out trade war," said Liam Halligan in an article carried by this week's Sunday Telegraph.Halligan, chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management, predicted that China will not yield to U.S. pressure on the issue."Beijing will eventually allow the yuan to rise, but in its own time and in order to tackle inflation and not because of U.S. pressure."Chinese inflation is now at 2.7 percent, close to the official 3-percent control target, he noted.Halligan argued that the Chinese yuan may not be under-valued as much as Western politicians have perceived.Although Chinese exports rose by 46 percent in the first two months of 2010, the rise is from a very low base -- with February 2009 being the epicenter of the U.S.-sparked sub-prime storm, he noted.He also pointed out the fact that China's trade surplus dropped by 51 percent in the same period. That means China's gain in exports were out-weighed by an import surge."This hardly suggests the yuan, as (U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim) Geithner claims, is 'way too low'," said Halligan.Geithner said in January that Obama believed China was manipulating its currency.On Obama's latest call for China to adopt a more "market-oriented exchange rate," Halligan said Washington is actually the biggest currency manipulator in the world."The reality is that America's 'weak dollar' policy -- its long-standing practice of allowing its currency to depreciate in order to lower the value of its foreign debts -- amounts to the biggest currency manipulation in human history."Halligan also noted that Washington has for years "shamefully stalled" on various rulings of the World Trade Organization that showed America to be breaching global trade rules."America needs to act smarter and get its own economic house in order. Obama has decided instead to lash out at China in a desperate attempt to placate a U.S. electorate increasingly mindful of their president's failings," said Halligan.The economist said Western politicians' blame game against emerging markets over the current global imbalances reflects their hypocrisy and lack of character."It's always easier to blame someone else for your failings... The Western world's response to this self-made 'credit crunch' has highlighted the hypocrisy of our so-called leaders, their refusal to face reality and, above all, their lack of character," he said."The implication (of statements of Western politicians) is that sub-prime, and the deepest Western recession in generations, wasn't our fault. It was entirely unrelated to widespread financial fraud, political myopia and lax regulation," Halligan scorned.

来源：资阳报