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A little girl with a passion for writing letters is now becoming a published author.Emerson Weber went viral earlier this year when her dad tweeted her story.Emerson had about a dozen pen-pals at the time. She writes them letters filled with jokes and stories, and she always decorates the envelopes.“It's like a little piece of art that someone's going to find in their mailbox, and I get my inspiration from everywhere,” said Weber, author of “Sincerely, Emerson.”Weber wanted to thank her mail carrier for always taking all her letters, so she wrote him too. Her mail carrier then shared that letter with his supervisor at work, who shared it regionally, and the responses poured in. Two boxes full of letters from postal workers arrived.Some sent back stamps or asked her to send a letter to more people in their family.Many postal workers said they felt seen for the first time in a long time, and she wrote back to all of them.“In this time that's a little crazy, they're still out there doing their job, so we can stay connected to our pen pals and people we love,” said Weber.After her story spread online, even more people from all over started writing Weber.She hopes when people read her book, they realize how one act of kindness can spread.“And I also hope they take the time to write a letter because people really appreciate that,” she said. “Your grandparents, your friends, anyone would really love to get a letter from you and it's just so meaningful.”Her picture book based on the viral story, “Sincerely Emerson,” comes out next week. 1562

A key forecasting model that’s been cited by the White House and state officials now predicts the COVID-19 death toll in the United States will surpass 410,000 by January 1.The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington released its latest forecast Friday, saying the U.S. and other countries in the Northern Hemisphere should prepare for a seasonal rise in COVID-19 cases.COVID-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to an ongoing tally from Johns Hopkins University.“I would call the surge in the winter that we’re forecasting a second wave,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray in a call with reporters Friday.The IHME says COVID-19 has followed seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia and if that correlation continues to hold, northern countries can anticipate more cases in the late fall and winter months.“The worst is yet to come,” warned Murray. “I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern Hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away.”The IHME’s prediction of 410,000 U.S. deaths by Jan. 1 is its most likely scenario, but it also provided a worst-case scenario. If mask usage stays the same and states continue to relax social distancing requirements, the IHME model predicts over 620,000 Americans could die from the virus by the new year.The IHME’s best-case scenario, where mask usage is universal and governments impose social distancing requirements, shows more than 286,000 people dying across the nation by the end of the year.“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” said Murray in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”Globally, the IHME predicts that nearly 770,000 lives could be saved between now and Jan. 1 through proven measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing.Across the world, deaths expected by Jan. 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year, the IHME says. Daily deaths in December could reach as high as 30,000.Under the most likely of IHME’s scenarios, the nations with the highest per capita total deaths would be the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Netherlands, and Spain.The IHME says these five countries will most likely have the highest cumulative death tolls by Jan. 1:India: 659,537U.S.: 410,451Brazil: 174,297Mexico: 138,828Japan: 120,514IHME says its projections are based on an epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as location-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19. 2977

A chickenpox outbreak among students at Asheville Waldorf School in North Carolina has grown to 36 cases as of Monday, and exemptions from vaccination were a contributing factor, according to the Buncombe County Health Department, which has been monitoring the situation since the end of October.Asheville Waldorf School, which serves students from nursery through sixth grade, is part of an educational movement that subscribes to a philosophy focused on physical activity and learning through hands-on tasks, according to its website. There are more than 900 Waldorf schools in 83 countries, and the Asheville school, which was founded in 2009, is one of about 160 in the United States.The school is closed for Thanksgiving break and could not be reached for comment.Chickenpox is a very contagious disease that causes a blister-like rash, itching, tiredness and fever, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The disease is caused by the varicella-zoster virus, and a vaccine was introduced in 1995. Two doses of the vaccine, given at ages 12 months through 15 months and then again at 4 through 6 years, are about 90% effective at preventing chickenpox. 1189

A locked-down pandemic-struck world cut its carbon dioxide emissions this year by 7%, the biggest drop ever, new preliminary figures show.The Global Carbon Project, an authoritative group of dozens of international scientists who track emissions, calculated that the world will have put 37 billion U.S. tons (34 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide in the air in 2020. That’s down from 40.1 billion US tons (36.4 billion metric tons) in 2019, according a study published Thursday in the journal Earth System Science Data.Scientists say this drop is chiefly because people are staying home, traveling less by car and plane, and that emissions are expected to jump back up after the pandemic ends. Ground transportation makes up about one-fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide, the chief man-made heat-trapping gas.“Of course, lockdown is absolutely not the way to tackle climate change,” said study co-author Corinne LeQuere, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia.The same group of scientists months ago predicted emission drops of 4% to 7%, depending on the progression of COVID-19. A second coronavirus wave and continued travel reductions pushed the decrease to 7%, LeQuere said.Emissions dropped 12% in the United States and 11% in Europe, but only 1.7% in China. That’s because China had an earlier lockdown with less of a second wave. Also China’s emissions are more industrial based than other countries and its industry was less affected than transportation, LeQuere said.The calculations — based on reports detailing energy use, industrial production and daily mobility counts — were praised as accurate by outside scientists.Even with the drop in 2020, the world on average put 1,185 tons (1,075 metric tons) of carbon dioxide into the air every second.Final figures for 2019 published in the same study show that from 2018 to 2019 emissions of the main man-made heat-trapping gas increased only 0.1%, much smaller than annual jumps of around 3% a decade or two ago. Even with emissions expected to rise after the pandemic, scientists are wondering if 2019 be the peak of carbon pollution, LeQuere said.“We are certainly very close to an emissions peak, if we can keep the global community together,” said United Nations Development Director Achim Steiner.Chris Field, director of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, thinks emissions will increase after the pandemic, but said “I am optimistic that we have, as a society learned some lessons that may help decrease emissions in the future.”“For example,” he added, “as people get good at telecommuting a couple of days a week or realize they don’t need quite so many business trips, we might see behavior-related future emissions decreases.”___Follow AP’s climate coverage at https://www.apnews.com/Climate___Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears .___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 3048

A cold front dropping down from Canada will be giving hundreds of thousands of people weather whiplash this week, with 30-to-50 degree 24-hour drops forecasted between Monday and Tuesday for sections of the Rocky Mountain west and western plains.Excessive heat warnings are in effect from southern Oregon to southern Arizona on Monday, according to the National Weather Service. As an early season cold blast moves south, those will be replaced Tuesday with winter weather and frost warnings along the Rockies and western plains, and wind advisories in neighboring states. 580