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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- California officially has a state sport as of Monday afternoon, surfing. With all the buzz you may be wondering where you can catch some waves in San Diego County. There are tons of places throughout the county to check out, whether you're a beginner or a pro. Check out the list below for more:  339

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — California has rejected San Diego County's request for a tier adjustment after the region was moved into the state's purple reopening tier.The county said that "San Diego’s increased cases are not due to the sectors impacted by moving into a more restrictive tier. County has interviewed cases to identify potential exposure settings and tracked community outbreaks."County health officials say businesses that will be impacted by purple tier restrictions saw the following breakdown of COVID-19 cases in October:Restaurant/bars: 7.4% of COVID-19 cases (715 of 9,646)Retail: 6.6% of COVID-19 cases (636 of 9,646)Places of worship: 1.9% of COVID-19 cases (184 of 9,646)K-12 schools: 1.7% of COVID-19 cases (165 of 9,646)Gyms: 0.4% of COVID-19 cases (39 of 9,646)In reference to October's data, the county said that, "outbreak data also show these sectors make up a small percentage of the cases overall ... Penalizing the impacted sectors for case increases is wrong, as these sectors continue to do the right things, while trying to weather the ongoing pandemic and the back and forth of re-openings."The county pointed to many local restaurants as an example of improving its mitigation efforts and investing in materials to make their settings safe for visitors, adding, "additionally, the closure of indoor restaurants, especially during the wintertime where outdoor dining is not optimal, will move individuals into homes and encourage gatherings, which is one of the high-risk areas for cases."Despite the request, the state decided on Sunday that the county will remain in the more restrictive purple tier.COUNTY'S EXPOSURE DATA (Oct. 25 - Nov. 7)According to county public health officials, between Oct. 25 and Nov. 7, there were a reported 5,576 COVID-19 cases.Of those cases, 3,833 cases were interviewed for contact tracing and 2,260 cases reported at least one of the potential exposure settings:Restaurant/bars: 389 casesBeach: 10 casesCasinos: 20 casesGroup gatherings: 159 casesGyms: 18 casesHair salon or barber: 97 casesPlaces of worship: 118 casesProtest: 0 casesRetail: 308 casesWork: 1,314 casesOther: 158 casesThe county says 1,573 of the 3,833 cases reported no potential exposure settings.Of all the cases between Oct. 25 and Nov. 7, the county says that people reported the possible exposure settings:Household exposure: 1,311 casesTravel-related exposure: 814 casesAny education-related exposure: 172 casesThrough Nov. 7, San Diego County has reported a total of 60,169 COVID-19 cases and 908 deaths from the virus. 2566

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- As Santa Ana winds move out of the region, a freeze warning was issued for portions of San Diego County.The National Weather Service issued a freeze warning for the county's valleys and deserts from midnight through 10 a.m. Friday. Overnight temperatures dropped into the low 30s, with a few areas seeing temperatures in the mid- to upper 20s.The warning will affect cities including Escondido, El Cajon, San Marcos, La Mesa, Santee, and Poway.RELATED: Winter returns to Southern California mountains 528

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Deadly crashes rose in San Diego in 2018, according to a new report by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. According to the report, there were 240 deadly crashes in San Diego County in 2018.In 2017, 223 deadly crashes were reported countywide, the agency said. According to the data, January and July were the deadliest months in 2018, each with 28 fatal crashes. RELATED: San Diego rain could lead to more crashes on wet roadsThe month with the least fatalities was May in 2018. The report didn’t specify why exactly certain months had more deadly crashes than others. The U.S. as a whole, however, saw fewer deadly crashes, showing a 2.4 percent decline from 37,473 in 2017 to 36,560.The agency says 2018 marked the second year in a row of reduced crash fatalities. RELATED: San Diego not the worst US city to drive in, but not the best either“This is encouraging news, but still far too many perished or were injured, and nearly all crashes are preventable, so much more work remains to be done to make America’s roads safer for everyone,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine L. Chao said. Also promising: the data show that deadly crashes among children 14 and younger declined more than 10 percent while alcohol-impaired driving fatalities decreased 3.6 percent. 1313