太原大便肛门出血痛(太原痔疮的症状) (今日更新中)

On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

Nursing homes and long-term care facilities need more personal protective equipment (PPE) than they did at the start of the pandemic.“If a home doesn't have at least a week's worth, that's a problem. It's regarded as a critical shortage and the reason why is because if you have an outbreak, you can start chewing through your existing supplies like that,” said Teresa Murray, a consumer watchdog at the U.S. Public Interest Research Group (U.S. PIRG).The group looked at data from facilities sent to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. They found one in five were dangerously low on one or more items, like gloves and hand sanitizer. Almost half didn't have a one-week supply of at least one type of PPE.“And they say that it's not unusual at all for nurses to use masks for like five days,” said Murray. “If they even have gowns, they're reusing them.”U.S. PIRG says these facilities couldn't compete with demand for supply.The Medical Supply Transparency and Delivery Act, which is sitting in Congress, would help stabilize prices. And the Defense Production Act could be used to increase U.S. production of PPE.“And not only does it affect the residents that are in that home. It affects the workers who, guess what, they go home, they go home to their families,” said Rowan. “They go home, to their grocery stores and to their churches. And their kids go to school. And so, this is, I mean, it's no surprise that this is why we're seeing some of these community outbreaks because of one case that starts in a nursing home.”When the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid said the data was accurate, U.S. PIRG says they were referred to FEMA for a solution plan. FEMA has not responded yet. 1700

On November 11, the country will honor those who have served in the armed forces.Dozens of businesses around the country will also be giving out freebies and discounts to honor veterans.  Most businesses require valid military ID or proof of service. 263

One of the jurors from Paul Manafort's trial said on Wednesday that although she "did not want Paul Manafort to be guilty," the evidence was "overwhelming.""I thought that the public, America, needed to know how close this was, and that the evidence was overwhelming," Paula Duncan said in an interview on Fox News. "I did not want Paul Manafort to be guilty, but he was, and no one's above the law. So it was our obligation to look through all the evidence."Duncan, who is the first juror to speak publicly, offered a look behind the scenes of the deliberations, noting that "crazily enough, there were even tears," and detailed some of the jury's conversations with the lone juror who she said was the reason Manafort was not found guilty on all counts."We all tried to convince her to look at the paper trail. We laid it out in front of her again and again and she still said that she had a reasonable doubt. And that's the way the jury worked. We didn't want it to be hung, so we tried for an extended period of time to convince her, but in the end she held out and that's why we have 10 counts that did not get a verdict," Duncan said on "Fox News at Night." 1171

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - A 16-year-old girl told Oceanside Police a man, possibly homeless, tried to kidnap her Thursday morning as she walked to El Camino High School. The girl was walking east on Mesa Drive near Vanilla Way at 7:20 a.m. and passed the man heading the opposite direction. After she walked by, the man turned and grabbed her in a bear hug, police said. The man struggled with the girl, who was able to break free when he fell to the ground, according to investigators. The girl arrived at school and notified security about the incident. Oceanside Police units and a drone were deployed to find the man but were not successful. The girl described the man as dirty or "possibly homeless" according to police, white, in his 50s, 5’9 inches tall, and very thin. He was wearing a tan pullover sweatshirt with a zipper and baggy black jeans. Police said the man may be bald on top of his head with short light brown hair on the sides. He also had a scab on the right side of his neck, the girl reported. Oceanside officers are asking anyone with information to call the department’s Family Protection Unit at 760-435-4690. 1144

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