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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The city could be heading back to square one in its quest to regulate short-term vacation rentals.On Monday, the San Diego City Council will decide whether to send its recently approved short-term rental regulations to a public vote, or scratch them altogether.In the summer, the council voted 6-3 to limit Airbnb-type rentals to primary residences. That essentially banned investors and owners of second homes from renting them out short-term.Airbnb launched a referendum that obtained enough signatures to send the decision back to the council, leaving the city those two options. "The people who own short-term rentals - they're San Diegans like you and me," said Jeff MacGurn, who owns a short-term rental in the Hillcrest area with his husband and signed the petition. "When it comes right down to it, what we want is a fair and reasonable compromise."But Ronan Gray, who heads Save San Diego Neighborhoods, said something has to be done to curtail short-term rentals in residential areas. He pointed to a City Attorney memo that says short-term rentals aren't allowed by municipal code and said the city should just enforce that code. "They're advertising houses in Pacific Beach as the ideal location for bachelor and bachelorette parties, so they're marketing it as a hotel," he said. The council meets at 12 p.m. Monday at City Hall.  1405

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The City of San Diego is taking legal action against the owners, operator and property manager of a independent living facility with squalid living conditions.Ten people lived in the now-closed home on Ewing Street near San Diego State, most of them elderly. Photos from inside the home show mold on mattresses, rat feces, holes in the walls, and overflowing trash cans.The City Attorney's office says fumes from an illegally installed water heater contaminated the interior, and the conditions were so dirty that a man's foot had to be amputated after a sore got infected. RELATED: Residents complain of bedbugs at El Cajon independent living facility"The mattresses are filled with bed bugs, there are mice droppings, it's awful," City Attorney Mara Elliott said. Independent Living Facilities are unlicensed and unregulated. They are often a last chance for vulnerable people to avoid becoming homeless - paying rent with social security or disability checks. Elliott's office is suing the owners, property manager, and operator, who could be forced to pay up to million. Additionally, operator Mark Rogers is being charged with 22 misdemeanors. Rogers also owns an independent living facility in El Cajon, where a tenant was murdered with a frying pan late last year. RELATED: Man charged with elder abuse for operating 'squalid' home in College AreaThe home on Ewing is known to police, who have responded to 300 calls over the last six years, mostly for disturbing the peace, suicide threats, and psychiatric evaluations.At least one person is still living inside. Morgan Cherry, who lives next door, said the home has a reputation in the neighborhood, but that the pictures took it to a new level. "I had no idea how bad it was," she said. Rogers said he is no longer operating the home. His attorney declined comment Thursday. 1865

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The man accused of opening fire into a Hillcrest business has been found incompetent to stand trial. Stefano Markell Parker, 29, was facing attempted murder charges in San Diego in connection with the shooting at Golden Dragon Asian Bistro in February of 2019. Witnesses in the area that night described a man they say stood outside the restaurant armed with a rifle and opened fire. No one was shot. RELATED: San Diego police arrest man suspected of shooting into Asian Bistro restaurant in HillcrestAfter the shooting, witnesses described seeing the suspect shooter walk away. Witnesses say the gunman then changed clothes, providing a description. Police arrested Parker in the area later in the night. A spokesperson at the Jefferson County Jail in Alabama previously confirmed to 10News that Parker was in custody in recent years. In 2016, he was arrested in Alabama for possession of marijuana and drug trafficking charges. In 2017, he faced charges of distributing methamphetamine and possession of marijuana. Court records also show that Parker faced capital murder charges when he was a teenager in connection with a shooting from a vehicle. RELATED: Team 10: Suspected Hillcrest shooter faced murder charges in AlabamaA spokesperson with the Jefferson County District Attorney’s Office said he pleaded guilty to felony murder and was sentenced to twenty years, but part of the sentence was suspended. He served four years. 1461

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The government is warning consumers not to get duped by fraudulent coronavirus test kits.As COVID-19 fears spread, the U.S. FDA is warning Americans about fake "diagnostic, prevention and treatment claims" the agency is beginning to see appear in the market.Currently, there is no approved home testing kit for coronavirus available for consumers, according to the FDA.RELATED:Q and A: Food safety and the coronavirus diseaseEight arrested, accused of price-gouging during COVID-19 emergencyCOVID-19 patient in Kentucky went through week-long struggle to be tested"The FDA has not authorized any test that is available to purchase for testing yourself at home for COVID-19. The FDA sees the public health value in expanding the availability of COVID-19 testing through safe and accurate tests that may include home collection, and we are actively working with test developers in this space," the agency said in a release.The problem with the fake kits, other than being fraudulent, is they could delay consumers from seeking medical care. Anyone who believes they have symptoms resembling the novel coronavirus (which are fever, coughing, and shortness of breath) is asked to contact their medical provider, who will help determine if they need to be tested."We have already identified and issued warning letters to companies found selling and promoting fraudulent items, and we expect additional such actions will be forthcoming," the FDA said.Anyone who believes they have found a vendor selling fake testing kits can report them to the FDA. 1570