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The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has been issuing frequent projections since March in an attempt to model the spread and impact of the coronavirus across the world.The models have been used by the CDC and White House coronavirus task force in an effort to better understand the potential number of deaths the coronavirus could cause.On Friday, the model added a new variable, one that could cause a steep decline of coronavirus deaths throughout the US. The IHME’s newest model, which predicts the number of coronavirus deaths in the US through the end of March, is now weighing the potential impact of vaccines on the virus.For those hoping for an immediate drop in hospitalizations and deaths caused by the coronavirus as soon as vaccinations begin later this month might be disappointed. The IHME's model shows the initial batch of vaccinations will have a relatively muted effect on deaths and hospitalizations initially. While by April 1, much of the general US population will likely not be fully vaccinated, many in the high-risk category should expect to vaccinated by then. How fast they get vaccinated will play a role in determining the number of coronavirus deaths in the US.As of Friday evening, there have been over 278,000 coronavirus-related deaths reported throughout the US, per Johns Hopkins University data. Without any vaccines reaching Americans, the IHME’s model projects a total of 548,000 would die from the coronavirus through April 1, meaning 270,000 deaths between now and then.If COVID-19 vaccines are distributed at expected levels, 9,000 lives would be saved by April 1, reducing the number of deaths between now and then to 261,000. But a rapid vaccine rollout – one that would vaccinate the high-risk population and begin to vaccinate the general population by the spring -- would result in 250,000 deaths between now and April 1.“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director. “We must be vigilant in protecting ourselves at least through April, when, as our projections indicate, vaccines will begin to have an impact.”In the meantime, Murray says universal mask wearing and social distancing will save more lives than a potential vaccine in the next four months.“Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks. Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out,” said Murray.To see the IHME’s state-by-state projections for deaths, hospitalizations and cases, clickhere. 2790

The three-star general is leaving Puerto Rico, ending his mission of providing relief from the devastation of Hurricane Maria.Troops are being pulled out, too, along with helicopters that have flown supplies and equipment to communities cut off by landslides and broken roads.Yet government statistics say power is still not on for more than half of homes and businesses, and water is out for more than 1 in 10.Lieutenant General Jeffrey Buchanan recognizes that Puerto Rico is far from back to normal, but seven weeks after the hurricane hit, he insists the time is right to pass the baton."I think we're in the right place to transition," he tells CNN on the last day of his deployment. 696

The Southeastern Conference decided Thursday that they are only playing SEC teams this season amid the coronavirus pandemic.The SEC will play 10-conference games. They also decided to push their kickoff date to September 26 and the Championship Game will be played on December 19."This new plan for a football schedule is consistent with the educational goals of our universities to allow for the safe and orderly return to campus of their student populations and to provide a healthy learning environment during these unique circumstances presented by the COVID-19 virus," SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey said in a news release. "This new schedule supports the safety measures that are being taken by each of our institutions to ensure the health of our campus communities."A revised football schedule, which will first need to be approved by SEC athletic directors will be sent out at a later date, conference officials said.The SEC joins the Pac-12 and Big Ten conferences to be playing conference-only games.According to The Associated Press, the ACC will play an 11-game schedule with one non-conference game. 1120

The world has spent the last several months wearing masks in public, avoiding gatherings and, in general, spending less time outside the home. But a new report suggests household transmission is one of the most common ways COVID-19 is spreading; an individual is most likely to contract COVID-19 from their spouse or significant other.That conclusion is part of a new report from the University of Florida which was published in the journal JAMA Network Open on Monday. Researchers looked at the results of 54 studies across 20 countries that included nearly 78,000 subjects.They found more than one in three, roughly 38%, of COVID-19 patients passed the virus to their spouses or significant others they live with."Infection risk was highest for spouses, followed by non-spouse family members and other relatives, which were all higher than other [close] contacts," the authors wrote.In the studies, about 17% of COVID-19 patients transmitted the virus to children they live with.Anyone living in the same home as someone who has contracted the coronavirus is at a heightened risk, but researchers say spouses and significant others are more likely to pass along the virus for various reasons, including "intimacy, sleeping in the same room, or longer or more direct exposure to index cases," according to the report's authors.The researchers found no significant difference between male and female transmission rates inside the home.A recent study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that 53% of people who live with someone who has COVID-19 will contract the virus within seven days.Health experts have urged those who have COVID-19 or have symptoms to wear a mask in their home, and isolate within the home as much as possible away from others under the same roof. 1798

The Sinclair Broadcast Group acquisition of Tribune Media is dead.Tribune said in a statement Thursday that it has terminated its merger agreement with Sinclair, scuttling a .9 billion deal that would have given the broadcasting group an even broader reach into American living rooms.The breakup of the deal is a stinging defeat for Sinclair, owner of dozens of local television stations. Sinclair has been scrutinized for its ties to the Trump administration.Tribune had been expected to walk away after the deal came under scrutiny from US regulators. The FCC in July referred the merger to an administrative judge hearing, and called into question whether some of Sinclair's proposed divestments were a "sham."Tribune said it will sue Sinclair for breach of contract, arguing Sinclair's negotiations with the US Justice Department and FCC were "unnecessarily aggressive. Sinclair also refused to sell certain stations that would have helped the deal secure regulatory approval, Tribune claims."Our merger cannot be completed within an acceptable timeframe, if ever," said Tribune CEO Peter Kern in a statement.Analysts expect Tribune to seek another buyer.Sinclair did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent outside business hours. 1259