宁海哪里有易经算命(淮阳哪里有算卦准的) (今日更新中)

On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) -- A man died early Saturday morning after being hit by a vehicle while crossing State Route 76, according to the Oceanside Police Department.The crash happened just before 1 a.m. on SR-76 near Old Grove Road.Police say a 2005 Lexus sedan was traveling westbound on the 76 when the driver struck a pedestrian attempting to cross the road. The man was pronounced dead at the scene.After hitting the man, the driver pulled to the center median and waited for police to arrive.“Neither Alcohol or drugs were a factor in this collision on the driver’s part. It is unknown the pedestrian was under the influence of any substance at this time,” police said.The name of the pedestrian has not been released. Anyone with information is asked to call Oceanside Police at 760-435-4431. 808

One volunteer Santa Claus might end up on the "naughty list" this Christmas as a 66-year-old New Jersey man who dresses up as Santa for the holidays was accused of possessing a crack pipe on Monday, WABC-TV reported. Charles Smith, of Pompton Lakes, New Jersey, was charged with two counts of drug paraphernalia, WABC reported. South Hackensack Police Department Captain Robert Kaiser told WABC that Smith was found with a crack pipe and empty bags of crack and heroin.Smith was pulled over by law enforcement on Monday, and was arrested after officers spotted the crack pipe in plain view. Police added that Smith's Santa costume was also in plain view. WABC reported that Smith works as a volunteer for the Toys for Tots program.  785

One day after President Donald Trump said he would leave the White House on January 20 barring a massive revolt from Electoral College voters, Trump walked back his statement on Friday.In a tweet, Trump says that President-elect Joe Biden will only be allowed in the White House if he can prove that he had 80 million votes. In America, voters cast private ballots. Once a vote is tabulated, it is no longer traced to the voter. Lawmakers put in measures such as secret ballots in the late 1800s amid an era of voter intimidation. Non-secret ballots are generally a violation of international law.“Biden can only enter the White House as President if he can prove that his ridiculous ‘80,000,000 votes’ were not fraudulently or illegally obtained,” Trump tweeted. “When you see what happened in Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia & Milwaukee, massive voter fraud, he’s got a big unsolvable problem!”Biden is slated to send 306 electors on his behalf to state capitols on December 4, 36 more than the 270 needed to become president on January 20. Trump has been trying to stop Biden’s electors from casting a vote by whatever means possible. After more than three dozen failed legal challenges since the election, Trump has been meeting with state legislative leaders, most recently on Wednesday with Republican members of the Pennsylvania legislature.The latest failed legal challenge came on Friday when a Trump-appointed federal judge was among a three-judge panel that threw out a lawsuit in Pennsylvania. The other two judges were Judge Michael Chagares, a George W. Bush appointee, and Judge D. Brooks Smith, who has been appointed by both GOP and Democratic presidents. “Charges of unfairness are serious. But calling an election unfair does not make it so. Charges require specific allegations and then proof. We have neither here,” 3rd Circuit Judge Stephanos Bibas wrote. Bibas was appointed by Trump to the federal bench in 2017.On Thursday, Trump answered questions for the first time since his Nov. 3 election defeat, saying that it would be a “mistake” if the Electoral College votes for Biden next month.“This election was a fraud,” Trump claimed.Two weeks ago, a joint statement released by federal and state officials described the presidential election as the “most secure in American history.”The letter was signed by leaders of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the U.S. Election Assistance Commission and the National Association of State Election Directors, among others. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency was established two years ago as a branch of Homeland Security during the Trump administration.In bold, the authors of the statement wrote, “There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised.” This statement matches those from secretaries of state and boards of election throughout the US.In response to the letter, Trump fired US election security head Chris Krebs.“I know one thing, Joe Biden did not get 80 million votes,” Trump claimed on Thursday.Trump was asked if he would attend Biden’s inauguration. He said he knew the answer but would not say whether he would or not. It has been a long-standing tradition that the incoming and outgoing president meet at the White House and travel to the Capitol together before the inauguration.Trump said, “certainly I will, you know that,” when asked if he would leave the White House on January 20.The president criticized Biden for beginning to fill out his prospective cabinet before taking office. But Trump as president-elect had named his UN ambassador and secretary of education nominees on the day before Thanksgiving in 2016.Earlier this week, the General Services Administration recognized Biden’s victory and has been overseeing the transition between the Trump and Biden administrations.The Biden transition has confirmed that the president-elect will begin receiving intelligence briefings ahead of his inauguration. 4047

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) — The Oceanside Main Street program launched a campaign to support local businesses in May and now that restrictions have been extended, so has the fundraiser.Manager Gumaro Escarcega said the goal is for the community to help the community, so they partnered with Whitlock Ink to create t-shirts and masks to sell that say “Oceanside Strong.” Initially, ,000 was raised and a majority of that was distributed to 13 Oceanside small businesses. Escarcega said with restrictions continuing, they made the decision to keep fundraising, so the products are still available.“As the pandemic continues to impact our communities, we felt that we need to send positive messages out there,” said Escarcega.Stacey Holmes owns Otterlei Coastal and said she’s felt the hit of the pandemic, so she was relieved to receive the help from the campaign.“We were able to use the grant for a little buffer, not knowing what tomorrow is going to bring,” she said.She also said that not only is the money-making a difference, but the community is coming together like never before to help each other. She said store owners are encouraging customers to stop by each other’s shops and restaurants, which has also helped.“I’m trying to pay it back forward to, make sure you go visit such and such store, go visit this restaurant or what have you, so even as a business we’re all supporting each other as well,” she said.Escarcega said right now, Main Street is working on another grant program that should be launched in August. He said the goal is to create a shop local campaign.“Just keep moving forward and keep thinking positive and we’ll all get through this,” said Escarcega. 1694

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