潍坊有算命准的吗(常州哪里算命的多) (今日更新中)

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Teenage cancer survivors from Rady Chidlren's Hospital celebrated an "unforgettable" event.The annual Unforgettable Prom brought teens battling cancer out for a night of dancing and celebration — a night many of the teens miss at school while they continue to fight illness. Now in its 13th year, the dance has helped teens take a moment to celebrate that special night in every teenager's life. And everything is covered: From dresses and tuxedos to entertainment, food, and decor, thanks to volunteers and the Friends of Scott Foundation, a local non-profit that works to provide emotional and financial support for children with cancer and their families.This year's theme, Avengers "Age of Heroes," honors Ryan Wilcox, a former patient and Unforgettable Prom King, who lost hist battle with cancer. "Unforgettable Prom" was started by Carmen Delgadillo, founder of the Friends of Scott Foundation. Degadillo lost her teenage son, Scott, to Acute Lymphostic Leukemia. From that loss, Delgadillo started the foundation to help other families in need of support during their own battles with cancer. To learn more about the foundation, click here.10News reporter Mackenzie Maynard emceed this year's event at Liberty Station. 1253

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The City of San Diego may owe you some of its unclaimed .2 million.The funds come from checks that are returned if the addresses are invalid. Checks that remain uncashed after six months become unclaimed monies.Amounts range from to ,000.We want to refund every single dollar of unclaimed money,” said Cecilia San Pedro, Disbursements Manager for the Office of the City Comptroller. “A simple search is all it takes to verify if you have been issued a check that has gone unclaimed. There is no charge to search the data or to file a claim.”To see if the City owes you money, click HERE.You can submit a claim by printing and completing the Request for Unclaimed Monies form.Send to:City of San Diego, Office of the City ComptrollerUnclaimed Monies Claim Processing202 C St. – Mail Station 7ASan Diego, CA 92101The City will verify claims and send replacement checks in four to six weeks. Anyone who has questions about unclaimed money may call 619-236-6310 or email comptroller@sandiego.gov.    1045

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The city of San Diego has a long to-do list when it comes to improving their Bridge homeless shelters. On Saturday morning, 300 people moved into the new Alpha Project bridge shelter in East Village, after the facility was flooded on December 6th. But for all of those residents, their stay is temporary. “This exists for one reason. To help people get back onto their feet. To help them get that apartment, and get that job,” Mayor Kevin Faulconer said while pointing at the mended Alpha Project tent.After contaminated flood water inundated the area, the city scrambled for a week to reopen the shelter. For nine days, residents spent their nights at SDCCU stadium. Once the East Village facility was sterilized and fixed, residents were bused back and moved into their bunks Saturday morning. But the city faces several other challenges. According to FEMA, the improved Alpha Project tent housing sits directly on top of a floodplain. Instead of rebuilding on a lower-risk area, the city decided to rehouse 325 residents in the same spot. In response, City Senior Press Secretary and Public Policy Manager, Greg Block sent 10News this statement: 1175

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The Climate Prediction Center released the final El Ni?o advisory for 2019, which means El Ni?o is over and now we are in a neutral phase with a 55 percent chance of continuing into winter.So what does that mean for the rest of summer and, most importantly, San Diego's winter? In order to put this in perspective, let’s review what this seasonal change means.San Diegans typically associate El Ni?o with a wet winter, or more rain and a better water supply. However, El Ni?o is more than that.The National Weather Service defines El Ni?o as a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Warm and cool changes are associated with the ENSO cycle. El Ni?o and La Ni?a are extreme phases of the ENSO cycle, but there is a third phase, less well known, called the ENSO neutral. That third phase is where San Diego is headed for the rest of the year and possibly through the winter months. El Ni?o and La Ni?a have a greater impact during the winter months. La Ni?a doesn’t do much for winters in California; it typically keeps San Diego dry and warm. The opposite happens during El Ni?o, which explains why it’s so much more popular. El Ni?o brings an active Jet and more frequent storms, reducing our drought and helping our water supply, with cold driven storms and snow for the Sierra Nevada mountains. The neutral phase is where San Diego is headed this fall with a 55 percent chance of it sticking around through the winter. The ENSO neutral phase is neither cold like La Ni?a nor warm like El Ni?o. The ENSO neutral phase is associated with sea surface temperatures closer to average, and stronger winds near the equator. It typically keeps the coldest air over the Northeast, warmer temperatures through the southern portion of the country, and wetter through the Midwest and Northeast.The ENSO Neutral typically keeps San Diego warm and dry. The extended forecast calls for above-normal temperatures for the remainder of the summer and near normal rain, which means dry since we are usually dry during those months.The winter outlook also brings near to slightly above normal temperatures. Rainfall will average near normal. San Diego's rainy season begins in November and lasts through March, sometimes lasting through April. Month Average Rainfall November 1.01” December 1.53” January 1.98” February 2.27” March 1.81” April 0.78” The average rainfall for the entire year in San Diego is 10.34 inches. During the months of November through April, we average more than 9 inches of rain. So, all we need is one storm every month during the winter time to keep us on track for the year. While the forecast favors an ENSO Neutral phase, there is a 30 percent chance the seasonal outlook could retrend toward El Ni?o. If we go back to El Ni?o, there is a better chance any given storm that moves into Southern California will be a rain maker, even if we only have a few storms.We will continue to monitor the changes; another year of surplus rain would be great for our region. 3074

来源：资阳报