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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

ATLANTA — Typically voters in other states don't typically pay attention to elections in other states. But that is not the case with the Jan. 5 Georgia runoff with control of the United States Senate on the line. WHAT'S AT STAKE Two Senate seats are up for grabs. Currently, Republicans control both of them and if they win reelection in one of them they will control the Senate for the next two years. If Democrats sweep both races, Democrats will control the Senate for two years. The outcome will determine how much political power President-elect Joe Biden has. Having control of the Senate would give Biden more ability to confirm nominees and pass progressive bills, which includes COVID economic relief. EARLY VOTING On Monday, early voting got underway with thousands casting their ballot in Georgia. 816

ATLANTA -- Senator Lindsey Graham said Tuesday he has spoken with election officials in a number of battleground states about their ballot counting procedures.Georgia’s secretary of state said that U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham asked him whether he had the power to reject certain absentee ballots. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told The Washington Post he interpreted the question as a suggestion that he toss out legally cast ballots.Raffensperger said Graham asked him whether political bias might have caused election workers to accept ballots that might have been discarded for non-matching signatures. An accusation that there has been no evidence to suggest.Graham on Monday said that was “ridiculous.” He said he was trying to find out how signature verification for absentee ballots works in Georgia.Raffensperger, also a Republican, has been criticized by President Donald Trump and other fellow Republicans over his handling of the election and said he’s received death threats. He has rigorously defended the integrity of Georgia’s election results.Graham told reporters in D.C. Tuesday he also talked with officials in Arizona and Nevada, specifically to ask them questions about the process for validating signatures on ballots.President-elect Joe Biden is projected to win both Arizona and Nevada, and holds a 13,000 vote lead in Georgia as they finish up a recount.The Trump campaign issued a statement Tuesday afternoon that seemed to support Graham’s line of questioning, without providing evidence.“Georgia officials must continue with their recount efforts to ensure that the American people know the true outcome of the 2020 presidential election, and the Georgia recount must include a thorough matching of signatures,” the statement reads.When Sen. Graham was asked why he was making these calls, he responded he is a “United States senator who is worried about the integrity of the election process nationally, when it comes to vote by mail.” 1977

BALBOA PARK, Calif (KGTV) - A sign near Christmas nativity displays at Balboa Park is causing some stir. It says that religion is a myth and that heaven, hell, angels, devils and gods do not exist.The Freedom From Religion Foundation put up the sign earlier this month. It's one of several similar displays they placed around the country during the holiday season.A statement from the group says they put the displays together to, "celebrate free-thought and to ensure representation of the growing number of secular Americans."The FFRF says they went through the legal permitting process with the city to put the sign in place. Members say it's about freedom of speech and the separation of church and state, not a war on Christmas."If the city is going to allow space for free expression, it has to allow space for free expression for everyone," says Steve Trunk, an FFRF member in San Diego.In addition to the sign, the group put up a small "nativity" scene of their own. It features America's Founding Fathers and the Statue of Liberty looking down at a "baby" Bill of Rights. The group says it's part of their holiday celebration, honoring the day when the Bill of Rights was adopted, December 15, 1971."That's our holiday," says Trunk,But some people in the park say it's the wrong way to send a message of freedom."It's a little bit on the selfish side," says Diane Sherwood, a University Heights resident who walks through the park and enjoys seeing the Christmas decorations. "If they don't want to come here and see all these things, they certainly don't have to. But to come here and object to them when other people enjoy it isn't right.""This doesn't speak to our shared humanity," says Jamie Edmonds, who lives in San Diego. "This speaks to polarization, division, squaring off people into different camps.""I object to the nativity stuff because I feel it's very partisan and doesn't belong on public land, says Leslie Edmonds. But, she adds that the FFRF display is "equally egregious," saying she'd rather see positive messages of inclusion."Say that all are welcome here," she says. "That would be a step to take all those beliefs and widen it out to make people more aware."The FFRF says they stand by their sign, and it will be up in Balboa Park as long as the Christmas decorations are there."Our thing as an organization is religious freedom," says Trunk. "That includes the freedom not to be religious." 2434

ATLANTA, Ga. – Tuesday marks the first day of fall, which means people across the country are beginning to plan their Thanksgiving festivities.With the COVID-19 pandemic still ongoing, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) wants Americans to keep coronavirus risks in mind.Specifically, the CDC wants people to know that traveling for the holidays increases your chance of contracting or spreading the coronavirus.“Thanksgiving is a time when many families travel long distances to celebrate together,” the CDC wrote in an updated guidance. “Travel increases the chance of getting and spreading the virus that causes COVID-19.”The CDC says staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others, but if you must travel, health officials want you to be informed of the risks involved.The agency says these are considered lower-risk activities:Having a small dinner with only people who live in your householdPreparing traditional family recipes for family and neighbors, especially those at higher risk of severe illness from COVID-19, and delivering them in a way that doesn’t involve contact with othersHaving a virtual dinner and sharing recipes with friends and familyShopping online rather than in person on the day after Thanksgiving or the next MondayWatching sports events, parades, and movies from homeThese are considered moderate-risk activities:Having a small outdoor dinner with family and friends who live in your community (Lower your risk by following CDC’s recommendations on hosting gatherings or cook-outs)Visiting pumpkin patches or orchards where people use hand sanitizer before touching pumpkins or picking apples, wearing masks is encouraged or enforced, and people are able to maintain social distancingAttending a small outdoor sports events with safety precautions in placeThese activities are considered higher-risk and the CDC says they should be avoided to help prevent the spread of the virus:Going shopping in crowded stores just before, on, or after ThanksgivingParticipating or being a spectator at a crowded raceAttending crowded paradesUsing alcohol or drugs, which can cloud judgment and increase risky behaviorsAttending large indoor gatherings with people from outside of your householdClick here to learn more from the CDC about how to protect yourself and others from the coronavirus. 2352